Journal of Construction Engineering and Project Management

한국건설관리학회 (Korea Institute of Construction Engineering and Management)
권호 표지
DOI QR코드

DOI QR Code

Estimating the Loss Ratio of Solar Photovoltaic Electricity Generation through Stochastic Analysis

  • Hong, Taehoon (Department of Architectural Engineering, Yonsei University) ;
  • Koo, Choongwan (Department of Architectural Engineering, Yonsei University) ;
  • Lee, Minhyun (Department of Architectural Engineering, Yonsei University)
  • 심사 : 2013.02.01
  • 발행 : 2013.09.01
PDF 다운로드
⟨ 이전 논문 다음 논문 ⟩

초록

As climate change and environmental pollution become one of the biggest global issues today, new renewable energy, especially solar photovoltaic (PV) system, is getting great attention as a sustainable energy source. However, initial investment cost of PV system is considerable, and thus, it is crucial to predict electricity generation accurately before installation of the system. This study analyzes the loss ratio of solar photovoltaic electricity generation from the actual PV system monitoring data to predict electricity generation more accurately in advance. This study is carried out with the following five steps: (i) Data collection of actual electricity generation from PV system and the related information; (ii) Calculation of simulation-based electricity generation; (iii) Comparative analysis between actual electricity generation and simulation-based electricity generation based on the seasonality; (iv) Stochastic approach by defining probability distribution of loss ratio between actual electricity generation and simulation-based electricity generation ; and (v) Case study by conducting Monte-Carlo Simulation (MCS) based on the probability distribution function of loss ratio. The results of this study could be used (i) to estimate electricity generation from PV system more accurately before installation of the system, (ii) to establish the optimal maintenance strategy for the different application fields and the different season, and (iii) to conduct feasibility study on investment at the level of life cycle.

키워드

참고문헌

  1. T.H. Hong, H.J. Kim, T.H. Kwak, "Energy Saving Techniques for Reducing $CO_2$ Emission in Elementary Schools", Journal of Management in Engineering, vol. 28, no. 1, pp. 1-12, 2012. https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)ME.1943-5479.0000101
  2. T.H. Hong, J.M. Kim, C.W. Koo, "LCC and $LCCO_2$ analysis of green roofs in elementary schools with energy saving measures", Energy and Buildings, vol. 45, no. 2, pp. 229-239, 2012. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enbuild.2011.11.006
  3. International Energy Agency, "World Energy Outlook 2010", International Energy Agency, 2010.
  4. Ministry of Knowledge Economy (MKE), "Report on formation of expanded foundation through solar potential survey", Ministry of Knowledge Economy (MKE), 2011
  5. New Renewable Energy Center in the Korea Energy Management Corporation(KEMCO), http://www.energy.or.kr/.
  6. Korea Mechanical Construction Contractors Association(KMCCA), "Seoul New Renewable Energy Travel", Monthly Journal of KMCCA, January, pp. 36-53, 2011.
  7. T. Oozekia, T. Izawaa, K. Otanib, K. Kurokawaa, "An evaluation method of PV systems", Solar Energy Materials & Solar Cells, vol. 75, no. 3-4, pp. 687-695, 2003. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0927-0248(02)00143-5
  8. D. Thevenard, S. Pelland, "Estimating the uncertainty in long-term photovoltaic yield predictions", Solar Energy, 2011. Article in press.
  9. N. Martin, J.M. Ruiz, "Calculation of the PV modules angular losses under field conditions by means of an analytical model", Solar Energy Materials & Solar Cells, vol. 70, no. 1, pp. 25-38, 2001. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0927-0248(00)00408-6
  10. C. Carrero, J. Rodriguez, D. Ramirez, C. Platero, "Simple estimation of PV modules loss resistances for low error modeling", Renewable Energy, vol. 35, no. 5, pp. 1103-1108, 2010. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.renene.2009.10.025
  11. W.R. Anis, M.A.-S. Nour, "Energy losses in photovoltaic systems", Energy Conversion and Management, vol. 36, no. 2, pp. 1107-1113, 1995. https://doi.org/10.1016/0196-8904(94)00085-E
  12. J. Zorrilla-Casanova, M. Piliougine, J. Carretero, P. Bernaola-Galvan, P. Carpena, L. Mora-Lopez, M. Sidrach-de-Cardona, "Losses produced by soiling in the incoming radiation to photovoltaic modules", Progress in photovoltaics: research and applications, 2012. doi:10.1002/pip.1258.
  13. O. Perpinan, E. Lorenzo, M.A. Castro, "On the Calculation of Energy Produced by a PV Grid-Connected System", Progress in photovoltaics: research and applications, vol. 15, no. 3, pp. 265-274, 2007. https://doi.org/10.1002/pip.728
  14. Y. Ueda, K. Kurokawa, K. Kitamura, M. Yokota, K. Akanuma, H. Sugihara, "Performance analysis of various system configurations on grid-connected residential PV systems", Solar Energy Materials & Solar Cells, vol. 93, no. 6-7, pp. 945-949, 2009. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.solmat.2008.11.021
  15. New Renewable Energy Monitoring System in the Korea Energy Management Corporation(KEMCO), http://konesis.kemco.or.kr/.
  16. California Energy Commision Energy Technology Development Division, "A guide to photovoltaic(PV) system design and installation", 1st ed., CA: Endecon Engineering, 2001.
  17. S. Ubertini, U., Desideri, "Performance estimation and experimental measurements of a photovoltaic roof", Renewable Energy, vol. 28, pp. 1833-1850, 2003. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0960-1481(03)00073-9
  18. J.W. Ju, H.S. Kim, S.J. Oh, M.S. Lee, J.M. Choi, "A study on the difference of regional electricity and economic comparative valuation of the photovoltaic system", Conference of Korea Institute of Architectural Sustainable Environment and Building Systems, pp. 137-140, 2008.
  19. Korea Meteorological Administration, "Annual Climatological Report", Korea Meteorological Administration, 2008-2011.
  20. H.S. Lee, J.H. Lim, "Statistical package for the social science(SPSS) 18.0 manual", Seoul: JypHyunJae Publishing Co., 2011.
  21. M. Frigge, D.C. Hoaglin, B. Iglewicz, "Some Implementations of the Boxplot", The American Statistician, vol. 43, no. 1, pp. 50-54, 1989.
  22. G.M. Tina, , S. De Fiore, C. Ventura, "Analysis of forecast errors for irradiance on the horizontal plane", Energy Conversion and Management, 2012. Article in press.
  23. A. Chouder, A. Silvestre, "Automatic supervision and fault detection of PV systems based on power losses analysis", Energy Conversion and Management, vol. 51, no. 10, pp. 1929-1937, 2010. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enconman.2010.02.025
  24. H.-K. Choi, S.-G. Choi, D.-W. Choi, G.-M. Lee, "Summer, A Study on Characteristic by Photovoltaic Module by Climate Fluctuation", Journal of the Korean Institute of Illuminating and Electrical Installation Engineers, vol. 23, no. 12, pp. 75-82, 2009. https://doi.org/10.5207/JIEIE.2009.23.12.075
  25. J.-H. So, B.-G. Yu, H.-M. Hwang, G.-J. Yu, J.-Y. Choi, "Performance Monitoring Results, Evaluation and Analysis of 50kW Grid-Connected PV System", Journal of the Korean Solar Energy Society, vol. 27, no. 2, pp. 29-35, 2007.

피인용 문헌

  1. A review on sustainable construction management strategies for monitoring, diagnosing, and retrofitting the building’s dynamic energy performance: Focused on the operation and maintenance phase vol.155, 2015, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.apenergy.2015.06.043
  2. A Process for the Implementation of New Renewable Energy Systems in a Building by Considering Environmental and Economic Effect vol.7, pp.12, 2015, https://doi.org/10.3390/su70912870
  3. Modeling Energy Generation by Grid Connected Photovoltaic Systems in the United States vol.01, pp.02, 2013, https://doi.org/10.4236/jbcpr.2013.12006
  4. Framework for the Mapping of the Monthly Average Daily Solar Radiation Using an Advanced Case-Based Reasoning and a Geostatistical Technique vol.48, pp.8, 2014, https://doi.org/10.1021/es405293u
  5. Development of the monthly average daily solar radiation map using A-CBR, FEM, and kriging method 2018, https://doi.org/10.3846/20294913.2016.1213198