Journal of Korean Society of Transportation (대한교통학회지)

Korean Society of Transportation (대한교통학회)
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A Development of Traffic Accident Estimation Model by Random Parameter Negative Binomial Model: Focus on Multilane Rural Highway

확률모수를 이용한 교통사고예측모형 개발: 지방부 다차로 도로를 중심으로

  • Lim, Joon Beom (Department of Transportation Engineering, University of Seoul) ;
  • Lee, Soo Beom (Department of Transportation Engineering, University of Seoul) ;
  • Kim, Joon-Ki (National Infrastructure Research Division, Korea Research Institute for Human Settlements) ;
  • Kim, Jeong Hyun (Green Transport & Logistics Institute, Korea Railroad Research Institute)
  • 임준범 (서울시립대학교 교통공학과) ;
  • 이수범 (서울시립대학교 교통공학과) ;
  • 김준기 (국토연구원 국토인프라연구본부) ;
  • 김정현 (한국철도기술연구원 녹색교통물류시스템공학연구소)
  • Received : 2014.07.04
  • Accepted : 2014.10.08
  • Published : 2014.12.31
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Abstract

In this study, accident frequency prediction models were constructed by collecting variables such as geometric structures, safety facilities, traffic volume and weather conditions, land use, highway design-satisfaction criteria along 780km (4,372 sections) of 4 lane-highways over 8 areas. As for models, a fixed parameter model and a random parameter model were employed. In the random parameter model, some influences were reversed as the range was expressed based on specific probability in the case of no fixed coefficients. In the fixed parameter model, the influences of independent variables on accident frequency were interpreted by using one coefficient, but in the random parameter model, more various interpretations were took place. In particular, curve radius, securement of shoulder lane, vertical grade design criteria satisfaction showed both positive and negative influence, according to specific probability. This means that there could be a reverse effect depending on the behavioral characteristics of drivers and the characteristics of highway sections. Rather, they influence the increase of accident frequency through the all sections.

본 연구는 전국 8개 권역(경기, 강원, 충남, 충북, 전남, 전북, 경남, 경북)에 4차로 이상도로(다차로 도로)구간 약 780km(4,372개구간)의 기하구조, 안전시설물, 교통량 및 기상, 토지이용, 도로설계기준 만족여부 등의 변수를 수집하여 사고건수 예측모형을 구축하였다. 모형은 고정모수 모형(fixed parameter model)과 확률모수 모형(random parameter model)을 사용하였다. 확률 모수 음이항 모형의 경우에 계수가 고정된 것이 아닌 특정확률을 가지고 범위로 표현함으로써 부호가 반대가 되는 경우도 일부 나타났다. 고정모수의 음이항 모형은 독립변수가 사고건수에 미치는 영향을 모든 구간에서 하나의 계수로 해석할 수 밖에 없었으나, 확률모수를 이용한 음이항 모형에서는 더욱 다양한 해석이 가능하였다. 특히, 곡선반경, 길 어깨 확보유무, 종단경사 설계기준 만족유무는 특정확률을 가지고 양의영향과 음의영향이 모두 나타났다. 이러한 현상은 모든 구간에서 일률적으로 사고건수 증감에 영향을 미친다기 보다는 일부구간에서는 운전자의 행동특성, 도로구간의 특성에 따라서 반대의 효과가 나타나기도 하는 것을 의미한다.

Keywords

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  2. Safety Effects of Freeway Hard Shoulder Running vol.9, pp.17, 2014, https://doi.org/10.3390/app9173614