Journal of Korea Water Resources Association (한국수자원학회논문집)

Korea Water Resources Association (한국수자원학회)
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Assessment of Future River Environment considering Climate Change and Basin Runoff Characteristics

기후변화와 유역유출특성을 고려한 미래하천환경 평가

  • 안정민 (국립환경과학원 낙동강물환경연구소) ;
  • 임태효 (국립환경과학원 낙동강물환경연구소) ;
  • 이인정 (국립환경과학원 낙동강물환경연구소) ;
  • 천세억 (국립환경과학원 낙동강물환경연구소)
  • Received : 2013.11.19
  • Accepted : 2014.02.05
  • Published : 2014.03.31
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Abstract

This study evaluated the environmental impact based on watershed characteristics and climate change using RCP climate change scenarios provided by the Korea Meteorological Administration. Future dam inflow was estimated by the SWAT model. Dam safety evaluation and downstream duration curve analysis was performed using HEC-ResSim model. Trends of water quality was analyzed through seasonal-Kendall Test using existing water quality observation data. Release discharge and tributary runoff derived SWAT and HEC-ResSim models applied to Qual2E and the future change in water quality trends were analyzed. Integrated environmental review watershed following techniques will be able to obtain the river environment management system and environmental issues such as climate change, new guidelines for preemptively response will be provided.

본 연구에서는 기상청에서 제공하는 RCP 기후변화시나리오를 이용하여 기후변화와 유역유출특성에 따른 환경영향을 평가하였다. SWAT모형을 이용한 미래 댐 유입량 평가, HEC-ResSim 모형을 이용한 댐 안전성 평가 및 하류 유황분석을 수행하였다. 또한, 기존 수질관측자료를 이용하여 Seasonal-Kendall Test를 통해 수질변화 추세에 대해 분석하였고, SWAT과 HEC-ResSim 모형으로 도출된 방류량 및 지류유출량을 Qual2E모형에 적용하여 미래 수질변화 추세에 대해 분석하였다. 다음과 같은 유역 통합환경검토 기법은 하천환경에 대한 과학적 물환경 관리 체계를 확보하고, 기후변화 등 새로운 환경문제에 선제적으로 대응하기 위한 지침을 마련할 수 있을 것이다.

Keywords

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