Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society

The Korean Data and Information Science Society (한국데이터정보과학회)
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A study on the spread of the foot-and-mouth disease in Korea in 2010/2011

2010/2011년도 한국 발생 구제역 확산에 관한 연구

  • Received : 2014.02.15
  • Accepted : 2014.03.08
  • Published : 2014.03.31
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Abstract

Foot-and-mouth Disease (FMD) is a highly infectious and fatal viral livestock disease that affects cloven-hoofed animals domestic and wild and the FMD outbreak in Korea in 2010/2011 was a disastrous incident for the country and the economy. Thus, efforts at the national level are put to prevent foot-and-mouth disease and to reduce the damage in the case of outbreak. As one of these efforts, it is useful to study the spread of the disease by using probabilistic model. In fact, after the FMD epidemic in the UK occurred in 2001, many studies have been carried on the spread of the disease using a variety of stochastic models as an effort to prepare future outbreak of FMD. However, for the FMD outbreak in Korea occurred in 2010/2011, there are few study by utilizing probabilistic model. This paper assumes a stochastic spatial-temporal susceptible-infectious-removed (SIR) epidemic model for the 2010/2011 FMD outbreak to understand spread of the disease. Since data on infections of FMD disease during 2010/2011 outbreak of Aniaml and Plant Quarantine Agency and on the livestock farms from the nationwide census in 2011 of Statistics Korea do not have detail informations on address or missing values, we generate detail information on address by randomly allocating farms within corresponding Si/Gun area. The kernel function is estimated using the infection data and by using simulations, the susceptibility and transmission of the spatial-temporal stochastic SIR models are determined.

구제역은 전염성이 높고 치명적 결과를 유발하는 우제류 전염병이며, 2010/2011년도에 국내에서 발생한 구제역 (2010/2011 구제역)은 사회 및 경제적으로 국가에 재난 수준의 손실을 끼쳤다. 따라서 국가적 차원에서 구제역의 예방과, 발병 시 피해를 줄이려는 많은 노력을 하고 있다. 이러한 노력의 하나로 구제역의 전염 현상을 확률적으로 모형화하고 이해하려는 노력이 필요하다. 영국에서 발생한 2001년 구제역은 그 규모와 피해가 막대하여, 영국에서는 다양한 확률적 모형으로 구제역 전파 현상에 대한 이해를 통하여 미래의 발생에 대비하려는 연구가 이루어져 왔다. 그러나 2010/2011 구제역에 대하여는 확률적 모형을 활용한 연구가 미미한 편이다. 따라서 본 연구에서는 2010/2011 구제역에 대하여 시간-공간 확률 SIR 확률모형을 가정하고 시간과 공간에 따르는 전파 현상에 대하여 고찰한다. 농림수산검역검사본부에서 발표한 구제역 감염데이터와 통계청의 전국농가센서스 자료의 일부인 전체 우제류 농가의 데이터가 본 연구의 분석에 필요한 정도로 상세하지 않으므로 추정 및 보정작업을 통하여 데이터를 보완하였다. 감염데이터를 이용하여 커널함수를 추정하고, 전국 우제류 농장데이터를 이용하여 시뮬레이션을 통하여 모형의 모수를 추정하였다.

Keywords

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