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Korean Meteorological Society (한국기상학회)
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Tropical Cyclone Track and Intensity Forecast Using Asymmetric 3-Dimensional Bogus Vortex

비축대칭 3차원 모조 소용돌이를 이용한 열대저기압의 진로 및 강도예측

  • Lee, Jae-Deok (Department of Environmental Atmospheric Sciences, Pukyong National University) ;
  • Cheong, Hyeong-Bin (Department of Environmental Atmospheric Sciences, Pukyong National University) ;
  • Kang, Hyun-Gyu (Department of Environmental Atmospheric Sciences, Pukyong National University) ;
  • Kwon, In-Hyuk (Korea Institute of Atmospheric Prediction System)
  • 이재덕 (부경대학교 환경대기과학과) ;
  • 정형빈 (부경대학교 환경대기과학과) ;
  • 강현규 (부경대학교 환경대기과학과) ;
  • 권인혁 (한국수치예보개발사업단)
  • Received : 2014.01.27
  • Accepted : 2014.04.22
  • Published : 2014.06.30
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Abstract

The bogussing method was further developed by incorporating the asymmetric component into the symmetric bogus tropical cyclone of the Structure Adjustable Balanced Vortex (SABV). The asymmetric component is separated from the disturbance field associated with the tropical cyclone by establishing local polar coordinates whose center is the location of the tropical cyclone. The relative importance of wave components in azimuthal direction was evaluated, and only two or three wave components with large amplitude are added to the symmetric components. Using the Weather Research and Forecast model (WRF), initialized with the asymmetric bogus vortex, the track and central pressure of tropical cyclones were predicted. Nine tropical cyclones, which passed over Korean peninsula during 2010~2012 were selected to assess the effect of asymmetric components. Compared to the symmetric bogus tropical cyclone, the track forecast error was reduced by about 18.9% and 17.4% for 48 hours and 72 hours forecast, while the central pressure error was not improved significantly. The results suggest that the inclusion of asymmetric component is necessary to improve the track forecast of tropical cyclones.

Keywords

References

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