Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods

The Korean Statistical Society (한국통계학회)
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Time-Varying Comovement of KOSPI 200 Sector Indices Returns

  • Received : 2014.05.21
  • Accepted : 2014.06.30
  • Published : 2014.07.31
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Abstract

This paper employs dynamic conditional correlation (DCC) model to examine time-varying comovement in the Korean stock market with a focus on the financial industry. Analyzing the daily returns of KOSPI 200 eight sector indices from January 2008 to December 2013, we find that stock market correlations significantly increased during the GFC period. The Financial Sector had the highest correlation between the Constructions-Machinery Sector; however, the Consumer Discretionary and Consumer Staples sectors indicated a relatively lower correlation between the Financial Sector. In terms of model fitting, the DCC with t distribution model concludes as the best among the four alternatives based on BIC, and the estimated shape parameter of t distribution is less than 10, implicating a strong tail dependence between the sectors. We report little asymmetric effect in correlation dynamics between sectors; however, we find strong asymmetric effect in volatility dynamics for each sector return.

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References

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