Abstract
Domestic 105mm HE (High Explosive) shell is composed of three parts that are Fuze, Projectile and Propellants. Among three parts, propelling charge of propellants part consists of single base propellants. It has been known that the lifespan of single base propellants is affected by a storage period. These are because Nitrocellulose (NC) which is the main component of propelling gunpowder can be naturally decomposed to unstable substances similar with other nitric acid ester. Even though it cannot be prevented fundamentally from being disassembled, a decomposition product ($NO_2$, $NO_3$, and $HNO_3$) and tranquillizer DPA (Diphenylamine) having high reactivity are added into a propellant to restrain induction of automatic catalysis by a decomposition product. The decay rate of the tranquillizer is also affected by a production rate of the decomposition product of NC. Therefore, an accurate prediction of the Self-Life is required to ensure against risks such as explosion. Hereupon, this paper presents a new methodology to estimate the shelf-life of single base propellants using data of ASRP (Ammunition Stockpile Reliability Program) to domestic 105mm HE (propelling charge of propellants part). We selected four attributes that are inferred to have influence on distribution of the DPA amount in a propellant from the ASRP dataset through data mining processes. Then the selected attributes were used as independent variables in a regression analysis in order to estimate the shelf-life of single base propellants.
