DOI QR코드

DOI QR Code

A study on prediction for attendances of Korean probaseball games using covariates

공변량을 이용한 한국프로야구 관중 수 예측에 대한 고찰

  • 한가희 (이화여자대학교 통계학과) ;
  • 정지규 (삼성스포츠사업단) ;
  • 유재근 (이화여자대학교 통계학과)
  • Received : 2014.10.02
  • Accepted : 2014.11.12
  • Published : 2014.11.30

Abstract

For predicting yearly total attendances in Korean probaseball games, ARIMA models have been widely adopted so far. In this paper, we discuss two other ways of ARIMAX and growth curves with an exogenous variable to predict the attendances. By using the exogenous variable, it turns out that the prediction has been improved compared to ARIMA. It is concluded that various statistical methods must be considered for better prediction, and its results can be applied to predict the attendances of other pro sports.

한국 프로야구 총 관중수 예측에 대해 기존의 선행 연구에서는 주로 자기회귀누적이동평균 모형이 사용되고 있다. 본 논문에서는 공변량을 고려한 자기회귀누적이동평균 모형과 성장곡선 모형을 이용하여 프로야구 관중 수에 대한 예측 모형을 제시하고 기존의 선행 연구 모형과 비교하고자 한다. 공변량을 이용한 모형을 사용함으로써 기존의 선행 연구 모형보다 보다 개선된 예측력을 얻을 수 있었다. 이는 통계적 자료분석에서 한 가지 방법보다는 다양한 방법을 시도한 후 비교, 논의를 통하여 자료를 가장 잘 설명해 줄 수 있는 최적 방법을 찾아야 한다는 사실을 확인할 수 있다.

Keywords

References

  1. Box, G. E. P., Jenkins, G. M. and Reinsel, G. C. (1994). Time series analysis: Forecasting and control, 3rd Ed., Prentice-Hall, New Jersey.
  2. Cho, S. and Son, Y. S. (1999). Time series analysis, Yulgok, Seoul.
  3. Kim, H.-D. and Chae, J.-S. (2012). Prediction of the number of spectators for the pro-baseball club using a time series model. The Korean Journal of Measurement and Evaluation in Physical Education and Sport Science, 14, 57-68.
  4. Kim, H. J. (2012). Effects of on-base and slugging ability on run productivity in Korean professional baseball. Journal of the Korean Data & Information Science Society, 23, 1065-1074. https://doi.org/10.7465/jkdi.2012.23.6.1065
  5. Kim, M.-C. (2009). Model study to predict the number of pro-baseball spector by time series analysis: About Busan Lotte Giants'spector. Korean Journal of Sport Management, 14, 17-25.
  6. Lee, J. T. (2014a). Measurements for hitting ability in the Korean pro-baseball. Journal of the Korean Data & Information Science Society, 25, 349-356. https://doi.org/10.7465/jkdi.2014.25.2.349
  7. Lee, J. T. (2014b). Estimation of OBP coefficient in Korean professional baseball. Journal of the Korean Data & Information Science Society, 25, 357-363. https://doi.org/10.7465/jkdi.2014.25.2.357
  8. Lee, J. T. (2014c). Pitching grade index in Korean pro-baseball. Journal of the Korean Data & Information Science Society, 25, 485-492. https://doi.org/10.7465/jkdi.2014.25.3.485
  9. Lemke, R. J., Leonard, M. and Tlhokwane, K. (2010). Estimating attendance at major league baseball games for the 2007 season. Journal of Sports Economics, 11, 316-348. https://doi.org/10.1177/1527002509337212
  10. Seung, H. and Kang and K.-H. (2012). A study on relationship between the performance of professional baseball players and annual salary. Journal of the Korean Data & Information Science Society, 23, 285-298. https://doi.org/10.7465/jkdi.2012.23.2.285
  11. Sul, M. S., Park, D. Y. and Lee, M. J. (2010). Forecast study of Korea pro baseball spectators by using time series analysis (2011-2015). Journal of Sport and Leisure Studies, 45, 375-387.

Cited by

  1. A study on demand forecasting for Jeju-bound tourists by travel purpose using seasonal ARIMA-Intervention model vol.27, pp.3, 2016, https://doi.org/10.7465/jkdi.2016.27.3.725
  2. Clinical data analysis in retrospective study through equality adjustment between groups vol.26, pp.6, 2015, https://doi.org/10.7465/jkdi.2015.26.6.1317
  3. Categorical time series clustering: Case study of Korean pro-baseball data vol.27, pp.3, 2016, https://doi.org/10.7465/jkdi.2016.27.3.621
  4. 인경신경망을 이용한 한국프로야구 관중 수요 예측에 관한 연구 vol.6, pp.12, 2014, https://doi.org/10.3745/ktsde.2017.6.12.565