Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society

한국데이터정보과학회 (The Korean Data and Information Science Society)
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공변량을 이용한 한국프로야구 관중 수 예측에 대한 고찰

A study on prediction for attendances of Korean probaseball games using covariates

  • 한가희 (이화여자대학교 통계학과) ;
  • 정지규 (삼성스포츠사업단) ;
  • 유재근 (이화여자대학교 통계학과)
  • 투고 : 2014.10.02
  • 심사 : 2014.11.12
  • 발행 : 2014.11.30
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초록

한국 프로야구 총 관중수 예측에 대해 기존의 선행 연구에서는 주로 자기회귀누적이동평균 모형이 사용되고 있다. 본 논문에서는 공변량을 고려한 자기회귀누적이동평균 모형과 성장곡선 모형을 이용하여 프로야구 관중 수에 대한 예측 모형을 제시하고 기존의 선행 연구 모형과 비교하고자 한다. 공변량을 이용한 모형을 사용함으로써 기존의 선행 연구 모형보다 보다 개선된 예측력을 얻을 수 있었다. 이는 통계적 자료분석에서 한 가지 방법보다는 다양한 방법을 시도한 후 비교, 논의를 통하여 자료를 가장 잘 설명해 줄 수 있는 최적 방법을 찾아야 한다는 사실을 확인할 수 있다.

For predicting yearly total attendances in Korean probaseball games, ARIMA models have been widely adopted so far. In this paper, we discuss two other ways of ARIMAX and growth curves with an exogenous variable to predict the attendances. By using the exogenous variable, it turns out that the prediction has been improved compared to ARIMA. It is concluded that various statistical methods must be considered for better prediction, and its results can be applied to predict the attendances of other pro sports.

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참고문헌

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