Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods

The Korean Statistical Society (한국통계학회)
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A Study on the Comparison of Electricity Forecasting Models: Korea and China

  • Zheng, Xueyan (Department of Applied Statistics, Chung-Ang University) ;
  • Kim, Sahm (Department of Applied Statistics, Chung-Ang University)
  • Received : 2015.10.05
  • Accepted : 2015.11.16
  • Published : 2015.11.30
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Abstract

In the 21st century, we now face the serious problems of the enormous consumption of the energy resources. Depending on the power consumption increases, both China and South Korea face a reduction in available resources. This paper considers the regression models and time-series models to compare the performance of the forecasting accuracy based on Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) in order to forecast the electricity demand accurately on the short-term period (68 months) data in Northeast China and find the relationship with Korea. Among the models the support vector regression (SVR) model shows superior performance than time-series models for the short-term period data and the time-series models show similar results with the SVR model when we use long-term period data.

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