Journal of The Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers (한국농공학회논문집)

The Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers (한국농공학회)
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Projection of Temporal Trends on Drought Characteristics using the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) in South Korea

표준강수증발산지수를 활용한 미래 가뭄특성의 시계열 변화전망

  • Nam, Won-Ho (Research Associate, National Drought Mitigation Center (NDMC), School of Natural Resources, University of Nebraska-Lincoln) ;
  • Hayes, Michael J. (National Drought Mitigation Center (NDMC) and School of Natural Resources, University of Nebraska-Lincoln) ;
  • Wilhite, Donald A. (School of Natural Resources, University of Nebraska- Lincoln) ;
  • Svoboda, Mark D. (National Drought Mitigation Center (NDMC), University of Nebraska-Lincoln)
  • Received : 2014.10.08
  • Accepted : 2014.11.27
  • Published : 2015.01.30
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Abstract

Recent droughts in South Korea have had large economic and environmental impacts across the country. Changes in rainfall and hydrologic patterns due to climate change can potentially increase the occurrence of extreme droughts and affect the future availability of water resources. Therefore, it is necessary to evaluate drought vulnerability for water resources planning and management, and identify the appropriate mitigation actions to conduct a drought risk analysis in the context of climate change. The objective of this study is changes in the temporal trends of drought characteristics in South Korea to examine drought impacts under climate change. First, the changes of drought occurrence were analyzed by applying the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) for meteorological data on 54 meteorological stations, and were analyzed for the past 30 years (1981-2010), and Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) climate change scenarios (2011-2100). Second, the changes on the temporal trends of drought characteristics were performed using run theory, which was used to compare drought duration, severity, and magnitude to allow for quantitative evaluations under past and future climate conditions. These results show the high influence of climate change on drought phenomenon, and will contribute to water resources management and drought countermeasures to climate change.

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