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Bayesian estimation of the Korea professional baseball players' hitting ability based on the batting average

한국프로야구 선수들의 타율에 기반된 타격 능력의 베이지안 추정

  • Cho, Yong Ju (Department of Statistics, Yeungnam University) ;
  • Lee, Kwang Ho (Department of Statistics, Yeungnam University)
  • Received : 2014.12.18
  • Accepted : 2015.01.20
  • Published : 2015.01.31

Abstract

In baseball game, the hitting ability of batter is frequently assessed by a batting average, a run batted in, a home run, a run scored, an on-base percentage, etc. Recently, more comprehensive indicators such as OPS, ISO, SECA, TA, RC and XR are often used. But, these measures generally shows large deviations since they are calculated from the data for a certain period of time, and they are not an estimate of a population parameter, either. In this paper, we will presume the pure hitting ability of the korea professional baseball players as a parameter which is depend upon at bat. We will estimate the parameter by using the Bayesian method.

야구경기에서 타자의 능력을 평가하는 중요 측도에는 타율, 타점, 홈런, 득점, 출루율 등이 있지만 최근에는 타자의 능력을 OPS, ISO, SECA, TA, RC, XR 등과 같은 포괄적인 지표를 사용하여 나타내는 경우가 많다. 이러한 지표들은 흔히 특정 기간 동안 얻은 데이터를 이용하여 계산된 것이기 때문에 기간에 따라 대체로 큰 편차를 보이는 경우가 많으며 특정 모수 (parameter)를 추정하는 것도 아니다. 본 연구에서는 한국프로야구 선수들의 순수한 타격 능력 (hitting ability)을 모수로 간주하여 통계적 방법으로 추정하고자한다. 타격 능력에 추정에는 타수 (at bat)가 반영된 베이지안 방법이 사용될 것이다.

Keywords

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