KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research (대한토목학회논문집)

Korean Society of Civil Engeneers (대한토목학회)
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Performance Prediction Model for Public-Private Partnership Projects Considering Stakeholders' Profitability

참여자별 수익성을 고려한 민간투자사업 성과예측 모델

  • 여동훈 (현대건설 녹색환경사업실) ;
  • 유기원 (연세대학교 토목환경공학과) ;
  • 이강욱 (연세대학교 토목환경공학과) ;
  • 한승헌 (연세대학교 공과대학 사회환경시스템공학부)
  • Received : 2014.10.08
  • Accepted : 2015.02.17
  • Published : 2015.04.01
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Abstract

The market of public-private partnership (PPP) projects has reduced from 9.4 trillion won in 2007 to 4.5 trillion won in 2012. However, the need of PPP projects is brought up by a massive down scale of government financial business. Previous studies regarding PPP projects mostly evaluate profitability from the financial perspective or analyze risk factors as a whole. Although PPP projects generally have complex structure involving diverse stakeholders, such as contractor, financial investor, and special purpose company (SPC) operators, existing studies have rarely considered the different viewpoints of PPP project stakeholders. Therefore, purpose of this study is to develop a structural equation model (SEM) considering the diverse stakeholders of PPP projects. To this end, the authors first reviewed the organizational structure of PPP projects. Next, the identification of the factors affecting project profitability are done via comprehensive literature reviews. After that, we conducted in-depth interviews and questionnaire surveys to reflect stakeholders' perspectives (contractors, financial investors, and SPC operators). As a result, a SEM model is developed to analyze direct and indirect effect on the PPP project performances. Finally, using the analysis results, relevant implications and directions for improvements are discussed. The prediction of the business performance of contractor, financial investor, and SPC operator is expect to be possible through the model developed and supports the strategy deduction that is appropriate for the participants.

민간투자사업에 대한 부정적인 시각으로 인해 민간투자사업 시장은 축소되었으나, 최근 국내 재정사업의 축소로 인해 민간투자사업에 대한 필요성이 다시금 제기되고 있다. 민간투자사업은 건설사, special purpose company (SPC), 재무투자자 등 다양한 참여자들 간의 이해관계가 복잡하여 사업의 성과를 판단하기 위해서는 참여자 간 관점 차이에 대한 고려가 필요하나, 기존의 연구는 재무적 관점의 수익성 예측, 또는 리스크 식별을 통한 수익성 예측을 중심으로 수행되었다. 이러한 점을 고려하여 본 연구에서는 민간투자사업 주요 참여자별 특성에 따른 민간투자사업 성과예측 모델을 개발하였다. 이를 위해 첫째, 다양한 분야의 문헌고찰을 통해 민간투자사업의 조직구조를 분석하였으며, 건설사, SPC, 재무투자자의 관점에서 민간투자사업 수익성 영향요인을 도출하였다. 둘째, 도출된 수익성 영향인자들을 바탕으로 민간투자사업 관련 전문가 설문조사 및 인터뷰를 실시하였다. 셋째, 구조방정식 모델(structural equation model)을 통해 민간투자사업의 구성개념들 간에 직접효과와 간접효과를 분석하여 민간투자사업의 수익성 및 수익안정성 측면에서의 성과를 거시적으로 이해할 수 있는 모델을 개발하였다. 넷째, 모델을 통해 도출된 결과를 바탕으로 민간투자사업의 재도약을 위한 발전방안을 제시하였다. 향후 본 모델을 통해 수익성과 수익안정성 측면에서 건설사, 재무투자자, SPC 운영사의 사업성과 예측이 가능하며, 이에 따른 대응전략을 모색하는데 활용 가능할 것으로 기대된다.

Keywords

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