Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society

한국데이터정보과학회 (The Korean Data and Information Science Society)
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기후변화가 국내 쌀 생산량에 미치는 영향에 대한 메타분석

A meta analysis of the climate change impact on rice yield in South Korea

  • 투고 : 2015.01.12
  • 심사 : 2015.02.27
  • 발행 : 2015.03.31
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초록

지난 수 십년간 전 지구적인 기후가 극적으로 변화함에 따라 가장 중요한 문제 중 하나로 인식되고 있는 식량 안보에 대하여 기후 변화의 영향을 평가하는 연구가 활발하게 진행되어 왔다. 본 연구에서는 메타분석을 이용하여 기후변화가 국내 농업에 미치는 영향을 분석하였다. 특히, 국내 농업에서 큰 비중을 차지하는 쌀에 대하여 이산화탄소 농도와 두 적응방안(파종시기 변경과 품종 변경)에 대한 효과를 추정하였다. 관심있는 효과에 대한 요약통계량을 이용하는 기존의 일반적인 메타분석 방법과는 달리, 다양한 온실가스 배출 시나리오와 대순환 모형을 사용하여 쌀 생산량을 예측한 6개의 개별 연구로부터 자료를 통합하여 메타분석을 수행하였다. 모델링 접근법으로써 쌀 생산량의 변화율을 종속변수로 설정하고, 이산화탄소 농도와 적응방안의 주 효과와 상호 작용 효과를 독립변수로 설정하여 회귀분석 실시하였다. 결과적으로 적응방안이 고려되지 않을 경우 이산화탄소 농도의 증가는 쌀 생산량을 감소시키나, 적응방안이 고려된다면 이산화탄소 농도의 증가는 쌀 생산량을 증가시키는 것으로 나타났다. 추가로 파종시기 변경 방안보다 품종 변경 방안이 쌀 생산량을 더 증가시키는 것을 알 수 있었다. 본 연구 결과는 향후 기후변화 대응책을 수립하는데 정량적 자료로 활용될 것으로 기대된다.

As the global climate has dramatically changed over the past decades, there has been active research on evaluating its effects on food security, which has been recognized as one of the most important issues in the field. In this study, we analyzed the impact of the climate change on the Korean agriculture using meta-analysis methods. Especially, our research focus is on estimating the effect of CO2 concentration and two adaptations (planting-date and cultivar adjustments)on rice that accounts for a larger proportion of the Korean domestic agriculture. Unlike traditional general meta-analysis methods that use summary statistics of effects of interest, meta analysis specific to the agriculture literature was conducted by integrating the data on rice yield that were generated under various CO2 emission scenarios and general circulating models of the 6 collected individual studies. As a modeling approach, the rice yield change ratio was set as the dependent variable and the main and interaction effects of CO2 concentration and adaptation were considered as independent variables in a regression model, As a result, CO2 is estimated to have opposite effects on rice yield depending on whether any of the two adaptations is applied or not; decreasing effect without adaptation and increasing effect with adaptation. In addition, it turns out that the cultivar adjustment has a higher increasing effect on rice yield than the planting-date adjustment. The results of the study are expected to be used as basic quantitative data for establishing responsive polices to the future climate changes.

키워드

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