KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research (대한토목학회논문집)

Korean Society of Civil Engeneers (대한토목학회)
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The Consideration on Calculation of Optimal Travel Speeds based on Analysis of AVI Data

AVI 수집 자료 분석에 근거한 최적 통행속도 산출에 관한 고찰

  • 정연탁 (부산광역시 교통정보서비스센터) ;
  • 정헌영 (부산대학교 도시공학과)
  • Received : 2015.03.24
  • Accepted : 2015.04.20
  • Published : 2015.06.01
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Abstract

This study aims to calculate optimal travel speeds based on analysis of the AVI data collected in the uninterrupted traffic flow, and the results are as follows. Firstly, we looked into the distribution of the sectional travel times of each probe vehicle and compared the difference in the sectional travel speeds of each probe vehicle. As a result, it is shown that outliers should be removed for the distribution of the sectional travel times. Secondly, there were differences among type 1(passenger automobiles) & type 2(automobiles for passengers and freight) and type 4(special automobiles) in the non-congestion section. thus it was revealed that there is a necessity to remove type 4(special automobiles) when calculating the sectional travel speeds. Thirdly, Based on the results of these, the optimal outlier removal procedures were applied to this study. As a result, it showed that the MAPE was between 0.3% and 2.0% and RMSE was between 0.3 and 2.3 which are very similar figures to the actual average traffic speed. Also, the minimum sample size was satisfied at the confidence level of 95%. The result of study is expected to serve as a useful basis for the local government to build the AVI. In the future, it will be necessary to study to integrate AVI data and other data for more accurate traffic information.

본 연구는 연속류에서 수집된 AVI 자료 분석에 근거한 최적의 통행속도 산출을 목표로 하고 있으며, 그 결과는 다음과 같다. 첫째, 개별 프로브 차량의 구간 통행시간 분포를 살펴보았고, 개별 프로브 차량별 구간 통행속도의 차이를 비교하였다. 그 결과, 구간 통행시간의 분포는 이상치를 제거하여야 하는 것으로 나타났다. 둘째, 비 혼잡구간에서는 1종(승용자동차)와 2종(승합자동차)는 4종(특수자동차) 간에는 차이가 있었다. 따라서, 구간 통행속도 산출시 4종(특수자동차)를 제거할 필요가 있는 것으로 나타났다. 셋째, 이러한 결과를 바탕으로 최적의 이상치 제거 절차를 본 연구에 적용하였다. 그 결과, 평균절대오차백분율(MAPE)은 0.3~2.0%이고, 평균제곱근오차(RMSE)는 0.3~2.3로 분석되어, 실제 평균 통행속도와 매우 유사한 값으로 나타났다. 또한 최소 표본수도 신뢰수준 95%에서 만족하였다. 본 연구의 결과는 AVI를 구축하고자 하는 지방자치단체를 위한 유용한 기초자료로 활용될 것으로 기대된다. 향후에는 보다 정확한 교통정보를 위하여 AVI 자료와 다른 자료와의 통합 연구가 필요할 것이다.

Keywords

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