DOI QR코드

DOI QR Code

Technical Reviews on Ecosystem Modeling Approach and its Applicability in Ecosystem-Based Coastal Management in Saemangeum Offshore and Geum River Estuary

생태계기반 연안관리를 위한 생태모델 개발방향에 대한 기술적 검토 - 새만금 외해역 및 금강 하구역 사례

  • Received : 2015.04.06
  • Accepted : 2015.07.03
  • Published : 2015.08.25

Abstract

Marine ecosystem modelling has become a more widely used decision-making tool in coastal ecosystem-based management. However, it is not trivial to develop a well calibrated/validated model with potential applicability and practicality because understanding ecological processes with complexities is a pre-requisite for developing robust ecosystem models and this accompanies a great deal of well coordinated efforts among field-going ecologists, laboratory scientists, modelers, stake-holders and managers. This report aims to provide a brief introduction on two different approaches in marine ecological models: deterministic (mechanistic) and stochastic (statistical) approach. We also included definitions, historical overview of past researches, case studies, and contextual suggestions for coastal management in Korea. A long list of references this report included in this study might be used as an introductory material for those who wish to enter ecosystem modelling field.

생태계기반 관리를 위해서는 정책적 활용도가 높은 생태모델이 개발되어야 한다. 이러한 생태모델이 개발되기 위해서는 복잡한 생태적 과정에 대한 면밀한 이해가 우선되어야 하며, 생태학자, 모델개발자, 이해당사자 그리고 관리자 사이의 원활한 의사소통이 필수적이다. 본 논문에서는 해양생태모델의 이론적 배경, 미국과 유럽의 생태모델의 최근 기술동향, 그리고 새만금 및 금강 하구역을 대상으로 우리나라 환경현안을 다루기 위한 생태모델 개발방향을 제시하였다. 기술동향에서 소개된 내용은 역학모델 중심의 생태순환모델과 통계모델이며 이들의 정책 활용 잠재성을 토의하였다.

Keywords

References

  1. Baretta, J.W., Ebenhoh, W. and Ruardij, P., 1995, "The european regional seas ecosystem model, a complex marine ecosystem model". Neth. J. Sea Res. Vol. 33, 233-246. https://doi.org/10.1016/0077-7579(95)90047-0
  2. Bissett, W.P., Walsh, J.J., Dieterle, D.A. and Carder, K.L., 1999a, "Carbon cycling in the upper waters of the Sargasso Sea: I. Numerical simulation of differential carbon and nitrogen fluxes", Deep-Sea Research, Vol. 46, 205-269.
  3. Bissett, W.P., Carder, K.L., Walsh, J.J. and Dieterle, D.A., 1999b, "Carbon cycling in the upper waters of the Sargasso Sea: II. Numerical simulation of apparent and inherent optical properties", Deep-Sea Research, Vol. 46, 271-317. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0967-0637(98)00063-6
  4. Bissett, W.P., DeBra, S. and Dye, D., 2004, Ecological Simulation (EcoSim) 2.0 Technical Description. Florida Environmental Research Institute, Tampa. http://www.flenvironmental.org/publications_ppts/FERI_2004_0002_U_D.pdf.
  5. Bissett, W., Arnone, R., DeBra, S., Dieterle, D., Dye, D., Kirkpatrick, G., Schofield, O. and Vargo, G., 2005, "Predicting the optical properties of the West Florida Shelf: Resolving the potential impacts of a terrestrial boundary condition on the distribution of colored dissolved and particulate matter", Marine Chemistry, Vol. 95, No. 3-4, 199-233. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.marchem.2004.09.007
  6. Blackford, J.C., Allen, J.I. and Gilbert, F.J., 2004, "Ecosystem dynamics at six contrasting sites: a generic model study", Journal of Marine Systems, Vol. 52, 191-215. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jmarsys.2004.02.004
  7. Blower, S. and Roughgarden, J., 1987, "Population dynamics and parasitic castration: a mathematical model", American Naturalist, Vol. 129, 730-754. https://doi.org/10.1086/284669
  8. Boyd, I.L., 2012, "The art of ecological modeling", Science, Vol. 337, No. 6092, 306-307. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1225049
  9. Brown, C.W., Ramers, D.L., Hood, R.R., Wazniak, C., Long, W. and Tango, P., (unpublished), "Predicting the abundance of the dinoflagellate Karlodinium veneficum in the Chesapeake Bay".
  10. Budgell, W.P., 2005, "Numerical simulation of ice-ocean variability in the Barents Sea region", Ocean Dynamics, Vol. 55, 370-387. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10236-005-0008-3
  11. Carpenter, S.R., Cole, J.J., Pace, M.L., Batt, R., Brock, W.A., Cline, T., Coloso, J., Hodgson, J.R., Kitchell, J.F., Seekell, D.A., Smith, L. and Weidel, B., 2011, "Early warnings of regime shifts: a whole-ecosystem experiment", Science, Vol. 332, 1079-1082. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1203672
  12. Christensen, V., Walters, C.J., Ahrens, R., Alder, J., Buszowski, J., Christensen, L.B., Cheung, W.W.L., Dunne, J., Froese, R., Karpouzi, V., Kaschner, K., Kearney, K., Lai, S., Lam, V., Palomares, M.L.D., Peters-Mason, A., Piroddi, C., Sarmiento, J.L., Steenbeek, J., Sumaila, R., Watson, R., Zeller, D. and Pauly, D., 2009, "Database-driven models of the world's Large Marine Ecosystems", Ecological Modeling, Vol. 220, No. 17, 1984-1996. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2009.04.041
  13. Constable, A.J., 1999, "Ecology of benthic macro-invertebrates in soft-sediment environments: A review of progress towards quantitative models and predictions", Australian Journal of Ecology, Vol. 24, 452-476. https://doi.org/10.1046/j.1442-9993.1999.00977.x
  14. Constantin de Magny, C., G., Long, W., Brown, C.W., Hood, R.R., Huq, A., Murtugudde, R. and Colwell, R.R., 2009, "Predicting the distribution of Vibrio spp. in the Chesapeake Bay: A Vibrio cholerae case study", Ecohealth, Vol. 6, 378-389. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10393-009-0273-6
  15. Conway, F., and Opsommer, L., 2007, "Communicating and interacting with Oregon's coastal marine recreational fishing community". Fisheries, Vol. 32, 182-188. https://doi.org/10.1577/1548-8446(2007)32[182:CAIWSC]2.0.CO;2
  16. Cury, P.M., Boyd, I.L., Bonhommeau, S., Anker-Nilssen, T., Crawford, R.J.M., Furness, R.W., Mills, J.A., Murphy, E.J., Osterblom, H., Paleczny, M., Piatt, J.F., Roux, J.-P., Shannon, L. and Sydeman, W., 2011, "Global seabird response to forage fish depletion-one third for the birds", Science, Vol. 334, 1703-1706. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1212928
  17. Dai, L., Vorselen, D., Korolev, K.S. and Gore, J., 2012, "Generic indicators for loss of resilience before a tipping point leading to population collapse", Science, Vol. 336, 1175-1177. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1219805
  18. Davos, C.A., Jones, P.J.S., Side, J.C., Siakavara, K., 2002, "Attitudes toward participation in cooperative coastal management: four European case studies". Coastal Management, Vol. 30, 209-220. https://doi.org/10.1080/08920750290042165
  19. Decker, M. B., Brown, C. W., Hood, R.R., Purcell, J.E., Gross, T.F., Matanoski, J.C., Bannon, R.O. and Setzler-Hamilton, E.M., 2007, "Predicting the distribution of the scyphomedusa, Chrysaora quinquecirrha, in Chesapeake Bay", Marine Ecology Progress Series, Vol. 329, 99-113. https://doi.org/10.3354/meps329099
  20. Di Lorenzo, E., 2003, "Seasonal dynamics of the surface circulation in the southern California Current System", Deep-Sea Research, Part II, Vol. 50, 2371-2388. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0967-0645(03)00125-5
  21. Dinniman, M.S., Klinck, J.M. and Smith, W.O. Jr., 2003, "Cross shelf exchange in a model of the Ross Sea circulation and biogeochemistry", Deep-Sea Research, Part II, Vol. 50, 3103-3120. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.dsr2.2003.07.011
  22. Edwards, K.P., Barciela, R., and Butenschon, M., 2012, "Validation of the NEMO-SRSEM operational ecosystem model for the North West European Continental Shelf", Ocean Science, Vol. 8, 983-1000. https://doi.org/10.5194/os-8-983-2012
  23. Elsner, J.B. and Tsonis, A.A., 1992, "Nonlinear prediction, chaos, and noise", Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, Vol. 73, 49-60. https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0477(1992)073<0049:NPCAN>2.0.CO;2
  24. Eppley, R.W., 1972, Temperature and phytoplankton growth in the sea. Fisheries Bulletin, 70, 1063-1085.
  25. Franks, P.J.S., Wroblewski, J.S. and Flierl, G.R., 1986, "Behavior of a simple plankton model with food-level acclimation by herbivores", Marine Biology, Vol. 91, 121-129. https://doi.org/10.1007/BF00397577
  26. Fennel, K., Wilkin, J., Previdi, M. and Najjar, R., 2008, "Denitrification effects on air-sea $CO_2$ flux in the coastal ocean: Simulations for the Northwest North Atlantic", Geophysical Research Lettter, Vol. 35, L24608. https://doi.org/10.1029/2008GL036147
  27. Fennel, K., Wilkin, J., Levin, J., Moisan, J., O'Reilly, J. and Haidvogel, D., 2006, "Nitrogen cycling in the Middle Atlantic Bight: Results from a three-dimensional model and implications for the North Atlantic nitrogen budget, Global Biogeochem. Cycles", Vol. 20, GB3007, doi:10.1029/2005GB002456.
  28. Freedman, G.I., 1980, Deterministic Mathematical Models in Population Ecology, Marcel Dekker, New York, 3-19.
  29. Gross, L., Thiria, S., Frouin, R. and Mitchell, B.G., 2000, "Artificial neural networks for modeling the transfer function between marine reflectance and phytoplankton pigment concentration", Journal of Geophysical Research, Vol. 105, 3483-3495. https://doi.org/10.1029/1999JC900278
  30. Haidvogel, D.B., Arango, H.G., Hedstrom, K., Beckmann, A., Malanotte-Rizzoli, P. and Shchepetkin, A.F., 2000, "Model evaluation experiments in the North Atlantic Basin: Simulations in nonlinear terrain-following coordinates", Dynamics of Atmospheres and Oceans, Vol. 32, 239-281. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0377-0265(00)00049-X
  31. Holt, J.T., Allen, J.I., Proctor, R. and Gilbert, F., 2005, "Error quantification of a high resolution coupled hydrodynamic-ecosystem coastal-ocean model: part 1. Model overview and assessment of the hydrodynamics". J. Mar. Syst., Vol. 57, 167-188. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jmarsys.2005.04.008
  32. Holt, J., Harle, J., Proctor, R., Michel, S., Ashworth, M., Batstone, C., Allen, I., Holmes, R., Smyth, T., Haines, K., Bretherton, D., and Smith, G., 2009, "Modelling the global coastal ocean". Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A., Vol. 367, 939-951. https://doi.org/10.1098/rsta.2008.0210
  33. Hooper, D.U., Chapin III, F.S., Ewel, J.J., Hector, A., Inchausti, P., Lavorel, S., Lawton, J.H., Lodge, D.M., Loreau, M., Naeem, S., Schmid, B., Setala, H., Symstad, A.J., Vandermeer, J. and Wardle, D.A., 2005, "Effects of biodiversity on ecosystem functioning: A consensus of current knowledge", Ecological Monographs, Vol. 75, No. 1, 3-35. https://doi.org/10.1890/04-0922
  34. Jacobs, J. M., Rhodes, M. , Brown, C.W., Hood, R.R., Leight, A., Long, W. and Wood, R., 2010, "Predicting the distribution of Vibrio vulnificus in Chesapeake Bay", NOAA Technical Memorandum NOS NCCOS. 112. 12 pp.
  35. Jiang, W. and Gibbs, M.T., 2005, "Predicting the carrying capacity of bivalve shellfish culture using a steady, linear food web model", Aquaculture, Vol.244, 171-185. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.aquaculture.2004.11.050
  36. Keiner, L.E. and Brown, C.W., 1999, "Estimating oceanic chlorophyll concentrations with neural networks", International Journal of Remote Sensing, Vol. 20, 189-194. https://doi.org/10.1080/014311699213695
  37. Kim, H.-C. and Cho, Y.-G., 2013, "A brief introduction to marine ecosystem modeling", The Sea, Vol. 18, 21-31. (in Korean) https://doi.org/10.7850/jkso.2013.18.1.21
  38. Kim, T.-W., Lee, K., Najjar, R.G., Jeong, H.-D. and Jeong, H.J., 2011, "Increasing N abundance in the northwestern Pacific ocean due to atmospheric nitrogen deposition", Science, Vol. 334, 505-509. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1206583
  39. Kim, Y.H., Im, J., Ha, H.K., Choi, J.-K., Ha, S., 2014, "Machine learning approaches to coastal water quality monitoring using GOCI satellite data", GIScience and Remote Sensing, Vol. 51, No. 2, 158-174. https://doi.org/10.1080/15481603.2014.900983
  40. Kishi, M.J., et al., 2007, "Nemuro - a lower trophic level model for the North Pacific marine ecosystem", Ecological Modelling, Vol. 202, 12-25. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2006.08.021
  41. Krasnopolsky, V.M., 2013, The Application of Neural Networks in the Earth System Sciences. Neural Network Multidimensional Mappings, Springer.
  42. Krasnopolsky, V.M., Gemmill, W.H. and Breaker, L.C. 2000, "A neural network multiparameter algorithm SSM/I ocean retrievals: comparisons and validations", Remote Sensing of Environment, Vol. 73, 133-142. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0034-4257(00)00088-2
  43. Levin, S.A., 1998, "Ecosystems and the biosphere as complex adaptive systems", Ecosystems, Vol. 1, 431-436. https://doi.org/10.1007/s100219900037
  44. Lotka, A.J., 1925, Elements of Physical Biology, Williams and Wilkins.
  45. Malthus, T.R., 1798, An Essay on the Principle of Population, Johnson, London.
  46. Marchesiello, P., McWilliams, J.C. and Shchepetkin, A., 2003, "Equilibrium structure and dynamics of the California Current System", Journal of Physical Oceanography, Vol. 33, 753-783. https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0485(2003)33<753:ESADOT>2.0.CO;2
  47. McLeod, K.L., Lubchenco, J., Palumbi, S.R., Rosenberg, A.A., 2005, "Scientific consensus statement on marine ecosystem-based management". Signed by 217 academic scientists and policy experts with relevant expertise and published by the Communication Partnership for Science and the Sea at http://compassonline.org/?q=EBMS;2005.
  48. McLeod, K. and Leslie, H., 2009, Ecosystem-based management for the oceans. Washington, DC: IslandPress.
  49. Midgley, G.F., 2012, "Biodiversity and ecosystem function", Science, Vol. 335, No. 6065, 174-175. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1217245
  50. Odum, E., 1953, Fundamentals of ecology, Saunders, Philadelphia, 383 p.
  51. Pearson, T.H. and Rosenberg, R., 1978, "Macrobenthic succeession in relation to organic enrichment and pollution of the marine environment", Oceanography and Marine Biology- an Annual Review, Vol. 16, 229-311.
  52. Peliz, A., Dubert, J., Haidvogel, D.B. and Le Cann, B., 2003, "Generation and unstable evolution of a density-driven Eastern Poleward Current: The Iberian Poleward Current", Journal of Geophysical Research, Vol. 108, No. C8, 3268, doi:10.1029/2002JC001443.
  53. Powell, T. P., Lewis, C. V. W., Curchister, E. N., Haidvogel, D. B., Hermann, A. J. and Dobbins, E. L., 2006, "Results from a three-dimensional, nested biological-physical model of the California Current System and comparisons with statistics from satellite imagery", Journal of Geophysical Research, Vol. 111, No. C7, C07018, doi:10.1029/2004JC002506.
  54. Riley, G.A., 1946, "Factors controlling phytoplankton populations on Georges Bank", Journal of Marine Research, Vol. 6, 54-73.
  55. Rhoads, D.C., Young, D.K., 1970, "The influence of deposit-feeding organisms on sediment stability and community trophic structure", Journal of Marine Research, Vol. 28, 150-178.
  56. Roux, D.J., Rogers, K.H., Biggs, H.C., Ashton, P.J., and Sergeant, A., 2006, "Bridging the science-management divide: moving from unidirectional knowledge transfer to knowledge interfacing and sharing". Ecology and Society, Vol. 11, [online] URL: http://www.ecologyandsociety.org/vol11/iss1/art4/.
  57. Rowe, G. and Frewer, L.J., 2000, "Public participation methods: a framework for evaluation". Science, Technology, and Human Values, Vol. 25, 3-29. https://doi.org/10.1177/016224390002500101
  58. Ryu, J., Leschine, T.M., Nam, J., Chang, W.K., Dyson, K., 2011a, "A resilience-based approach for comparing expert preferences across two large-scale coastal management programs", Journal of Environmental Management, Vol. 92, 92-101. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jenvman.2010.08.020
  59. Ryu, J., Kim, H.-C., Khim, J.S., Kim, Y.H., Park, J., Kang, D., Hwang, J.H., Lee, C.-H. and Koh, C.-H., 2011b, "Prediction of macrozoobenthic species distribution in the Korean Saemangeum tidal flat based on a logistic regression model of environmental parameters", Ecological Research, Vol. 26, 659-668. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11284-011-0826-3
  60. Scheffer, M., Bascompte, J., Brock, W.A., Brovkin, V., Carpenter, S.R., Dakos, V., Held, H., van Nes, E.H., Rietkerk, M. and Sugihara, G., 2009, "Early-warning signals for critical transitions", Nature, Vol. 461, 53-59. https://doi.org/10.1038/nature08227
  61. Shutler, J.D., Smyth, T.J., Saux-Picart, S., Wakelin, S.L., Hyder, P., Orekhov, P., Grant, M.G., Tiltone, G.H. and Allen J.I., 2011, "Evaluating the ability of a hydrodynamic ecosystem model to capture inter- and intra-annual spatial characteristics of chlorophyll-a in the north east Atlantic", Journal of Marine Systems, Vol. 88, 169-182. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jmarsys.2011.03.013
  62. Sinha, B., Buitenhuis, E.T., Quere, C.L. and Anderson, T.R., 2010, "Comparison of the emergent behavior of a complex ecosystem model in two ocean general circulation models", Progress in Oceanography, Vol. 84, 204-224. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.pocean.2009.10.003
  63. Steele, J.H. and B.W. Frost, 1977, "The structure of plankton communities", Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society of London, 270, 485-534.
  64. Tada, K., Fujiwara, M., Honjo, T., 2010, "Water quality and nori (Porphyra) culture in the Seto Inland Sea", Bunseki Kagaku, Vol. 59, 945-955. https://doi.org/10.2116/bunsekikagaku.59.945
  65. Thorson, G., 1950, "Reproduction and larval ecology of marine bottom invertebrates", Biological Review, Vol. 25, 1-45. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1469-185X.1950.tb00585.x
  66. Thrush, S.F., Hewitt, J.E., Herman, P.M.J., Ysebasert, T., 2005, "Multiscale analysis of species-environment relationships", Marine Ecology Progress Series, Vol. 302, 13-26. https://doi.org/10.3354/meps302013
  67. Vann, L. and Hu, Y., 2002, "A neural network inversion system for atmospheric remotesensing measurements", Instrumentation and Measurement Technology Conference, 2002. IMTC/2002. Proceedings of the 19th IEEE, Vol. 2, 1613-1615.
  68. Veraart, A.J., Faassen, E.J., Dakos, V., van Nes, E.H., Lurling, M. and Scheffer, M., 2012, "Recovery rates reflect distance to a tipping point in a living system", Nature, Vol. 481, 357-359.
  69. Verhulst, P.-F., 1838, "Notice sur la loi que la population poursuit dans son accroissement", Correspondance mathématique et physique, Vol. 10, 113-121.
  70. Volterra, V., 1926, "Fluctuations in the abundance of a species considered mathematically", Nature, Vol. 118, No. 2972, 558-560. https://doi.org/10.1038/118558a0
  71. Wakelin, S. L., J. T. Holt, J. C. Blackford, J. I. Allen, M. Butenschon, and Y. Artioli, 2012, "Modeling the carbon fluxes of the northwest European continental shelf: Validation and budgets", J. Geophys. Res., Vol. 117, C05020, doi:10.1029/2011JC007402.
  72. Walsh, J.J., 1972, "Implications of a systems approach to oceanography", Science, Vol. 176, 969-975. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.176.4038.969
  73. Warner, J. C., W. R. Geyer, and J. A. Lerczak, 2005a, "Numerical modeling of an estuary: A comprehensive skill assessment", J. Geophys. Res., 110, C05001, doi: 10.1029/2004JC002691.
  74. Warner, J.C, Sherwood, C.R., Arango, H.G. and Signell, R.P., 2005b, "Performance of four turbulence closure methods implemented using a generic length scale method", Ocean Modelling, Vol. 8, 81-113. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ocemod.2003.12.003
  75. Warwick, R.M., 1986, "A new method for detecting pollution effects on marine macrobenthic communities", Marine Biology, Vol. 92, 557-562 https://doi.org/10.1007/BF00392515
  76. Wilkin, J.L., Arango, H.G., Haidvogel, D.B., Lichtenwalner, C.S., Glenn, S.M. and Hedstrom, K.S., 2005, "A regional ocean modeling system for the long-term ecosystem observatory", Journal of Geophysical Research, Vol. 110, C06S91, doi: 10.1029/2003JC002218.
  77. Ysebaert, T., Meire, P., Herman, P.M. and Verbeek, H., 2002, "Macrobenthic species response surfaces along estuarine gradients: prediction by logistic regression", Marine Ecology Progress Series, Vol. 225, 79-95. https://doi.org/10.3354/meps225079