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Arrival Delay Estimation in Bottleneck Section of Gyeongbu Line

철도선로용량 부족에 따른 지체발생 연구 - 경부선 서울~금천구청 구간을 대상으로

  • Lee, Jang-Ho (Dept. of Railroad Facility Engineering, Korea National University of Transportation)
  • Received : 2015.05.08
  • Accepted : 2015.07.13
  • Published : 2015.08.31

Abstract

This research shows the relationship between the number of trains and the probability of trains with arrival delay and suggests way to estimate the benefits of improved punctuality in a bottleneck section of the Gyeongbu Line. The arrival delays of high-speed and conventional trains were estimated using the train operation data of KORAIL. Linear regression models for the probability of trains with arrival delay by train type are presented in this paper. The probabilities of trains with arrival delay were more affected by the number of conventional trains than by the number of high-speed rail trains. For the empirical analysis, a project for increasing the capacity in the Seoul~Geumcheongu office section was tested. The benefits of the improved punctuality were estimated to be 4.2~4.5 billion Korean won every year. This research has some limitations but it can help evaluate more precisely the feasibility of the project of increasing the capacity in bottleneck sections.

본 연구는 대표적 선로용량 부족구간인 경부선 서울~금천구청 구간을 분석대상으로 열차운행횟수에 따른 열차 지연도착 발생확률을 추정하고, 이를 통해 정시성 개선 편익을 반영할 수 있는 방안을 마련하였다. 코레일의 열차운행자료를 기초로 연도별/월별/시간대별 지체발생수준을 분석하였고, 고속 및 일반열차의 열차운행횟수에 따른 지연발생확률을 선형회귀분석으로 모형화하였다. 분석결과, 해당구간 지연발생확률에 일반열차 운행횟수가 고속열차 운행횟수 보다 1.4~2.8배 더 큰 영향을 미치는 것으로 나타났다. 이를 기초로 정시성 개선 편익의 산정방법론을 제시하였고, 실제 서울~금천구청간 선로용량 확충사업에 대하여 사례분석을 수행한 결과, 연간 42~45억원 규모의 편익이 발생하는 것으로 분석되었다. 본 연구를 통해 선로용량 부족구간에 대한 용량확충사업의 편익과 경제적 타당성을 제고시킬 수 있을 것으로 기대된다.

Keywords

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