Journal of Korea Water Resources Association (한국수자원학회논문집)

Korea Water Resources Association (한국수자원학회)
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A Study on Regionalization of Parameters for Sacramento Continuous Rainfall-Runoff Model Using Watershed Characteristics

유역특성인자를 활용한 Sacramento 장기유출모형의 매개변수 지역화 기법 연구

  • Kim, Tae-Jeong (Department of Civil Engineering, Chonbuk National University) ;
  • Jeong, Ga-In (Department of Civil Engineering, Chonbuk National University) ;
  • Kim, Ki-Young (Infrastructure Research Center, K-water Institute) ;
  • Kwon, Hyun-Han (Department of Civil Engineering, Chonbuk National University)
  • 김태정 (전북대학교 토목공학과, 방재연구센터) ;
  • 정가인 (전북대학교 토목공학과, 방재연구센터) ;
  • 김기영 (한국수자원공사 K-water 연구원 기반시설연구소) ;
  • 권현한 (전북대학교 토목공학과, 방재연구센터)
  • Received : 2015.06.29
  • Accepted : 2015.08.12
  • Published : 2015.10.31
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Abstract

The simulation of natural streamflow at ungauged basins is one of the fundamental challenges in hydrology community. The key to runoff simulation in ungauged basins is generally involved with a reliable parameter estimation in a rainfall-runoff model. However, the parameter estimation of the rainfall-runoff model is a complex issue due to an insufficient hydrologic data. This study aims to regionalize the parameters of a continuous rainfall-runoff model in conjunction with a Bayesian statistical technique to consider uncertainty more precisely associated with the parameters. First, this study employed Bayesian Markov Chain Monte Carlo scheme for the estimation of the Sacramento rainfall-runoff model. The Sacramento model is calibrated against observed daily runoff data, and finally, the posterior density function of the parameters is derived. Second, we applied a multiple linear regression model to the set of the parameters with watershed characteristics, to obtain a functional relationship between pairs of variables. The proposed model was also validated with gauged watersheds in accordance with the efficiency criteria such as the Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency, index of agreement and the coefficient of correlation.

미계측유역의 유출량 모의는 수문학 분야에서 필수적인 사항이다. 강우-유출 모형을 이용하여 신뢰성 있는 유출량을 모의하기 위한 핵심사항은 강우-유출 모형의 매개변수를 추정하는 것이다. 하지만 현재 우리나라는 불충분한 수문자료로 인해 매개변수 추정에 어려움이 존재한다. 본 연구의 목표는 불확실성 반영을 위한 Bayesian 통계기법 기반의 강우-유출 모형의 매개변수를 지역화 하는 것이다. 그 방법은 다음과 같다. 첫째, 본 연구는 세계적으로 널리 사용되고 있는 Sacramento 강우-유출 모형에 Bayesian Markov Chain Monte Carlo 기법을 연계한 Bayesian Sacramento 강우-유출 모형을 사용하여 계측유역을 대상으로 13개 매개변수를 최적화하고 각 매개변수의 사후분포를 도출하였다. 둘째, 매개변수와 유역특성인자 사이에 회귀특성을 얻기 위해 다중선형회귀분석을 적용하여 유역특성을 고려한 지역화 매개변수를 결정하였다. 다중회귀분석을 통하여 산정된 지역화 매개변수를 계측유역에 전이하여 유출량을 모의 후 통계적 효율기준인 N-S계수, 일치계수 및 상관계수를 사용하여 지역화 매개변수 검증을 수행하였다.

Keywords

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