DOI QR코드

DOI QR Code

Socioeconomic development, gender equity and birthrate's determinant: focused on the family axis' transformation model

사회경제적 발전, 양성평등 그리고 출산율의 결정요인 -가족 중심축의 수평화 2단계 모형을 중심으로-

  • Lee, Je-Sang (Department of Economics, Kyungpook National University) ;
  • Song, Yoo-Mee (Department of Social Work, Daegu Cyber University)
  • 이제상 (경북대학교 경제학과) ;
  • 송유미 (대구사이버대학교 사회복지학과)
  • Received : 2016.10.04
  • Accepted : 2016.11.10
  • Published : 2016.11.30

Abstract

This purpose of this study is to present a new theoretical framework on birthrate recovery in advanced countries in the 21st century. As a result of socioeconomic development and individualism diffusion, the central axis of the family has transformed from the vertical axis of the father-son relation, to the horizontal axis of the husband-wife relation. This process is divided into 2 stages. In the industrialization stage, a nation or a society achieves equality of the individual in family formation, including marriage or divorce. In the post-industrialization stage, it accomplishes the couple equality in family maintenance, including child rearing and household labor. This paper grouped 33 OECD member countries as post- industrialization countries and 103 countries as industrialization countries. This study utilizes 6 variables affecting marriage and childbearing based on previous research. Research results find that during the industrialization stage, the birthrate falls as the education level of women is higher. In the post-industrialization stage, the birthrate rises as gender equality level is higher.

본 논문은 '가족 중심축의 수평화 2단계 모형'이란 분석틀을 통해 사회경제적 발전에 따라 출산율이 하락하는 단계와 출산율이 상승하는 단계가 있음을 제시하는데 목적이 있다. 사회경제적 발전이 진행되면서 가족의 중심축이 부자(父子)의 수직축에서 부부(夫婦)의 수평축으로 이동하며, 그 과정은 결혼 이혼 등 가족의 형성 측면에서 남녀 개인의 평등을 이루는 산업화 단계와, 자녀양육 가사노동 등 가족의 유지 측면에서 부부 평등을 이루는 후기 산업화 단계로 나뉜다. 본 논문은 전세계 136개국을 대상으로 OECD 가입국 33개국을 후기산업화단계의 선진국으로, 나머지 103개국을 산업화단계의 개발도상국으로 구분하여 분석했다. 연구방법은 종속변수 출산율에 대해 출생성비, 평균 출산연령, 여성의 경제활동참가율을 통제변수로, 1인당 국민소득, 여성의 교육수준, 성격차지수를 설명변수로 하고, 산업화단계 국가들과 후기산업화 단계 국가 별로 출산율에 대한 위계적 회귀분석을 실시했다. 연구결과 산업화 단계의 개도국에는 여성의 교육수준과 1인당 국민소득이 통계적으로 유의한 변수였으나, 성격차지수는 유의하지 않았던 반면에 후기산업화 단계의 선진국에서는 성격차지수와 1인당 국민소득, 여성의 교육기대연한이 통계적으로 유의했다. 결론적으로 산업화단계에서는 여성의 교육수준이, 후기산업화단계에서는 성평등수준이 출산율에 가장 영향을 미치는 결정요인인 것으로 파악되었다.

Keywords

References

  1. Goldstein, J. R., Sobotka, T., Jasilioniene, A., "The end of 'lowest-low' fertility?," Population and Development Review, 35, pp. 663-699, 2009. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1728-4457.2009.00304.x
  2. Bongaarts, J. and Sobotka, T., "A demographic explanation for the recent rise in European Fertility," Population and Development Review, 38, pp. 83-120, 2012. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1728-4457.2012.00473.x
  3. Esping-Andersen, G., Billari, F. C., "Re-theorizing Family Demographics," Population and Development Review, 41(1), pp. 1-31, 2015. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1728-4457.2015.00024.x
  4. Rindfuss, Ronald R., Karin L. Brewster., " Childbearing and Fertility," Population and Development Review 22(Suppl.), pp.258-289. 1996. DOI: https://doi.org/10.2307/2808014
  5. Ahn, N., Mira, P., "A note on the changing relationship between fertility and female employment rates in developed countries," Journal of Population Economics 15(4), pp. 667-682. 2002. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s001480100078
  6. Billari F. C. and H.-P. Kohler, "Patterns of the lowest -Low Fertility in Europe," Population Studies 58(2), pp. 161-176, 2004. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1080/0032472042000213695
  7. Chesnais, J.-C. "Below-Replacement Fertility in the European Union (EU-15): Facts and Policies, 1960-1997," view of Population and Social Policy 7, pp. 83-101, 1998.
  8. Castles, F.G. "The world turned upside down: below replacement fertility, changing preferences and family-friendly public policy," Journal of European Social Policy 13(3), pp. 209-227, 2003. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1177/09589287030133001
  9. McDonald, P. "Gender equity, social institutions and the future of fertility," The Journal of Population Research, 17(1), pp. 1-16. 2000. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/BF03029445
  10. McDonald, P.,"Gender Equity in Theories of Fertility Transition," Population and Development Review, 26(3), pp. 427-439, 2000. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1728-4457.2000.00427.x
  11. C. Y. Jeong, Theory of Economic Development, Bobmumsa, 2006.
  12. J. S. Han, W. H. Lee, J. K. Ha, Theory of Economic Development, Cheongram, 2014.
  13. D. Bell, The Coming of the post-industrial Society, 1976.
  14. Inglehart, R., and Welzel, C. Modernization, Cultural Change, and Democracy. 2005.
  15. Inglehart, R., Norris, P. Rising Tide: Gender Equality and Cultural Change around the World. Cambridge University Press. 2003. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1017/CBO9780511550362
  16. Esping-Andersen, G. The Incomplete Revolution 2009.
  17. Myrskyla, M., H-P. Kohler., Billari. F.C., "Advances in Development Reverse Fertility Declines," Nature, 460(7256), pp. 741-743. 2009. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1038/nature08230
  18. Myrskyla, M., H-P. Kohler., Billari. F.C. "High Development and Fertility: Fertility at Older Reproductive Ages and Gender Equality Explain the Positive Link." Max Plank Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany. 2011.
  19. Torr, B. M., and Short, S. E., "Second Births and the Second Shift: A Research Note on Gender Equity and Fertility," Population and Development Review, 30(1), pp. 109-130. 2004. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1728-4457.2004.00005.x
  20. J. S. Lee, and Y. M. Song. The Failure of the Family. Hyungseul. 2015.
  21. Coontz, S. Marriage, A History. 2006.
  22. K. S. Chang. Family, Life, and Polical Economy, 2009.
  23. Kostat(www.kostat.go.kr)
  24. O. A. Kim. Demographic Eonomics. Yullim-munhwas. 2000.
  25. Hotz, V. J., Klerman, J. A., and Wilis, R. J., "The economics of fertility in developed countries," Handbook of Population and Family economics Vol. 1. 1997.
  26. World Economic Forum. The Global Gender Gap Report 2015.
  27. Goldman, D.P. (2013). Israel's Demographic Miracle, http://www.jewishpolicycenter.org, 013.
  28. KNOEMA(www.knoema.com)
  29. UNESCO(www.unis.unesco.org)
  30. UNDP(www.undp.org)