Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society (한국산학기술학회논문지)

The Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society (한국산학기술학회)
권호 표지
DOI QR코드

DOI QR Code

Analysis on the Relationship between Consumer Sentiment and Macro-economic Indices by Consumer's Characteristics

우리나라 소비자 특성별 체감경기와 거시경제지표 간의 관계 분석

  • Kim, Young-Joon (Department of Economics & Finance, Sangmyung University) ;
  • Shin, Sukha (Department of Economics, Sookmyung University)
  • 김영준 (상명대학교 금융경제학과) ;
  • 신석하 (숙명여자대학교 경제학과)
  • Received : 2016.09.05
  • Accepted : 2016.11.10
  • Published : 2016.11.30
Download PDF
⟨ Previous Next ⟩

Abstract

This paper presents an empirical analysis on the relationship between consumer sentiment and macro-economic indices by consumer's characteristics such as age, income and employment type. According to the empirical analysis based on the Consumer Sentiment Index(CSI) of the Bank of Korea and other macro-economic indices, the following study findings are presented. First, individual consumer sentiment depends not only on GDP growth, but also on other macro-economic conditions such as wage, employment, consumer and asset price, and debt burden. Second, the degree of importance of the macro-economic indices on determining individual consumer sentiment varies strongly according to consumers' characteristics. These findings reveal that the gap between consumer sentiment and GDP growth can largely be explained by considering the other macro-economic indices and consumer's characteristics.

본고에서는 소비자들이 느끼는 체감경기가 경제성장률 등 통상적인 거시경제지표와 괴리될 수 있으며, 특히 소득, 연령, 종사상의 지위 등 각 소비자들의 특성에 따라 차이가 난다는 점에 주목하여 소비자의 체감경기에 영향을 미치는 요인이 무엇인지 살펴보았다. 소비자들의 체감경기를 나타내는 변수로는 한국은행의 소비자동향조사를 통해 파악되는 현재생활 형편 소비자심리지수(CSI)를 사용하였으며 전반적인 실물경기 상황을 나타내는 지표로는 국내총생산(계절조정) 전기대비 증가율을 이용하였다. 이 외에 개별 소비자들의 체감경기에 영향을 미치는 요인으로 임금, 구인배율, 주택매매가격, 주가지수, 생활물가지수, 가계부채상환부담 등을 고려하였는데 분석결과 상기한 거시경제지표들이 소비자들의 체감경기에 상당한 영향을 미치는 것으로 확인되었다. 특히 소득, 연령, 종사상의 지위 등 소비자의 특성별로 그룹을 나누어 분석하여 본 결과, 상기한 거시경제지표들이 체감경기에 영향을 미치는 정도는 소비자 그룹별로 차이가 있는 것으로 확인되었다. 또한 소비자들이 느끼는 체감경기가 경제성장률로 대표되는 실물경기 지표와 크게 괴리되었던 과거의 경우에도 임금, 구인배율 등 상기한 거시경제지표들을 추가적으로 고려하면 이러한 괴리의 상당 부분을 설명할 수 있음을 확인할 수 있었다.

Keywords

References

  1. Doms, M. and N. Morin, "Consumer Sentiment, the Economy, and the News Media," Finance and Economic Discussion Series, p.1-70, 2004-51, Federal Reserve Board, 2004.
  2. Bram, J. and S. Ludvigson, "Does Consumer Confidence Forecast Household Expenditure? A Sentiment Index Horse Race," Economic Policy Review, vol. 4, no. 2, pp. 59-78, 1998.
  3. Curtin, R., "Consumer Sentiment Surveys: Worldwide Review and Assesment," Journal of Business Cycle Measurement and Analysis, vol. 3, no. 1, pp. 7-42, 2007. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1787/jbcma-v2007-art2-en
  4. Fisher, K. and M. Statman, "Consumer Confidence and Stock Returns," Journal of Portfolio Management, pp. 115-127, 2003. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.3905/jpm.2003.319925
  5. Gelper, S., A. Lemmens, and C. Croux, "Consumer sentiment and consumer spending: decomposing the Granger causal relationship in the time domain," Applied Economics, no. 39, no. 1, pp. 1-11, 2009. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/00036840500427791
  6. Golinelli, R. and G. Parigi, "Consumer Sentiment and Economic Activity: A Cross Country Comparison," Journal of Business Cycle Measurement and Analysis, vol. 1, no. 2, pp. 140-170, 2004. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1787/jbcma-v2004-art10-en
  7. Howrey, E. P., "The Predictive Power of the Index of Consumer Sentiment," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, pp. 175-216, 2001.
  8. Matsusaka, J. G. and A. M. Sbordone, "Consumer Confidence and Economic Fluctuations," Economic Inquiry, vol. 33, no. 2, pp. 296-318, 1995. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1465-7295.1995.tb01864.x
  9. Soules, N., "Consumer Sentiment: Its Rationality and Usefulness in Forecasting Expenditure - Evidence from the Michigan Micro Data," NBER Working Paper no. 8410, pp. 1-38, 2001. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.3386/w8410
  10. Kim, S. and Y. Goo, "The Predictive Power of the Index of Consumer Sentiment," Economic Analysis, vol. 11, no. 1, pp. 73-107, 2005.
  11. Kim. J., "The Analysis on Social Happiness and Macroeconomics Variables," Korea Safety Management & Science Spring Conference, pp. 109-121, 2009.
  12. Park, C. and Y. Lee, "Analysis on the Predictive Power of the Housing Market Survey Indices," Journal of the Korea Real Estate Analysis Association, vol. 16, no. 1, pp. 131-146, 2010.
  13. Lee, G., "Economic Forecasting under the Korean Currency Crisis: Short-term Forecasting of GDP with Business Survey Data," The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics, vol. 12, no. 2, pp. 397-404, 1999.
  14. Park, S. and J. Choi., "The Analysis of Main Causes on Consumer Sentiment Indicator (CSI)'s Changes," Statistics Korea Working Paper, pp. 1-29, 2006.
  15. Lee. W., J. Sim, and Y. Park., "A Time Series Analysis of the Reciprocal Agenda-Setting Relationships Running among Economic News, the State of the Economy, Consumer Expectations, and Consumer Behaviors," The Journal of Journalism & Communication Studies, vol. 51, no. 4, pp. 280-307, 2007.