Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society

The Korean Data and Information Science Society (한국데이터정보과학회)
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Bias caused by nonresponses and suggestion for increasing response rate in the telephone survey on election

전화 선거여론조사에서 무응답률 증가로 인한 편의와 응답률 제고 방안

  • Heo, Sunyeong (Department of Statistics, Changwon National University) ;
  • Yi, Sucheol (Department of Mathematics, Changwon National University)
  • Received : 2016.02.04
  • Accepted : 2016.03.10
  • Published : 2016.03.31
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Abstract

Thanks to the advantages of low cost and quick results, public opinion polls on election in Korea have been generally conducted by telephone survey, even though it has critical disadvantage of low response rate. In public opinion polls on election in Korea, the general method to handle nonresponses is adjusting the survey weight to estimate parameters. This study first drives mathematical expression of estimator and its bias with variance estimators with/without nonresponses in election polls in Korea. We also investigates the nonresponse rate of telephone survey on 2012 Korea presidential election. The average response rate was barely about 14.4%. In addition, we conducted a survey in April 2014 on the respondents's attitude toward telephone surveys. In the survey, the first reason for which respondents do not answer on public opinion polls on election was "feel bothered". And the aged 20s group, the most low response group, also gave the same answer. We here suggest that survey researchers motivate survey respondents, specially younger group, to participate surveys and find methods boosting response rate such as giving incentive.

조사결과의 신속성이 요구되는 선거여론조사의 특성상 짧은 시간에 유권자들의 의견을 파악할 수 있고 저렴한 조사비용이라는 장점 때문에 낮은 응답률이라는 심각한 결함에도 불구하고 대부분 선거여론조사는 전화조사로 이루어진다. 현재 국내에서 실시되는 많은 선거여론조사는 연령별, 성별, 지역별 인구수 또는 유권자수에 비례하여 할당된 수만큼 조사하는 방식을 취하고 있다. 무응답이 발생하여 초기에 할당된 수만큼 조사가 이루어지지 않은 경우, 응답자들의 가중치를 조정하여 추정하는 방법을 사용한다. 본 연구에서는 무응답이 존재하는 경우, 현재 국내 여론조사에서 사용하는 추정량의 편의와 분산의 편의를 수리적으로 도출하였다. 이 편의는 응답집단과 무응답집단 간의 의사 차이와 무응답률의 크기에 비례한다. 또, 2012년 대선 선거여론 조사 자료를 기초로 전화 선거여론조사에서의 응답률을 산출하였는데, 평균 약 14.4%에 불과하였다. 한편, 자체적으로 실시한 '전화 선거여론조사에 대한 의식조사'에서, 응답자들이 전화 선거여론조사에 응답하지 않는 가장 큰 이유로 "귀찮아서"를 가장 많이 선택하였고, 여론조사 응답률이 가장 낮은 20대가 가장 많이 선택한 이유도 "귀찮아서"였다. 따라서 응답률을 높이기 위해서는 인센티브를 지급하는 등 조사대상자들의 응답 동기를 높이기 위한 보다 적극적인 노력이 필요하다.

Keywords

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