Asian Pacific Journal of Cancer Prevention

Asian Pacific Journal of Cancer Prevention (아시아태평양암예방학회)
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Breast Cancer Trend in Iran from 2000 to 2009 and Prediction till 2020 using a Trend Analysis Method

  • Zahmatkesh, Bibihajar (Pathology Department, School of Nursing and Midwifery, Shahroud University of Medical Sciences) ;
  • Keramat, Afsaneh (School of Nursing and Midwifery, Shahroud University of Medical Sciences) ;
  • Alavi, Nasrinossadat (Breast Cancer Research Center, ACECR) ;
  • Khosravi, Ahmad (Pathology Department, Center for Health Related Social and Behavioral Sciences Research, Shahroud University of Medical Sciences) ;
  • Kousha, Ahmad (Faculty of Health Tabriz University of Medical Sciences) ;
  • Motlagh, Ali Ghanbari (Radiation Oncology, Shahid Beheshti University of Medical Sciences) ;
  • Darman, Mahboobeh (Expert At Noncomunicable Disease Center) ;
  • Partovipour, Elham (MS, Non-Communicable diseases, Deputy of Health, Ministry of Health and Medical Education) ;
  • Chaman, Reza (Department of Community Medicine, School of Medicine, Yasuj University of Medical Sciences)
  • Published : 2016.04.11
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Abstract

Background: Breast cancer is the most common cancer in women worldwide with a rising incidence rate in most countries. Considering the increase in life expectancy and change in lifestyle of Iranian women, this study investigated the age-adjusted trend of breast cancer incidence during 2000-2009 and predicted its incidence to 2020. Materials and Methods: The 1997 and 2006 census results were used for the projection of female population by age through the cohort-component method over the studied years. Data from the Iranian cancer registration system were used to calculate the annual incidence rate of breast cancer. The age-adjusted incidence rate was then calculated using the WHO standard population distribution. The five-year-age-specific incidence rates were also obtained for each year and future incidence was determined using the trend analysis method. Annual percentage change (APC) was calculated through the joinpoint regression method. Results: The bias adjusted incidence rate of breast cancer increased from 16.7 per 100,000 women in 2000 to 33.6 per 100,000 women in 2009. The incidence of breast cancer had a growing trend in almost all age groups above 30 years over the studied years. In this period, the age groups of 45-65 years had the highest incidence. Investigation into the joinpoint curve showed that the curve had a steep slope with an APC of 23.4% before the first joinpoint, but became milder after this. From 2005 to 2009, the APC was calculated as 2.7%, through which the incidence of breast cancer in 2020 was predicted as 63.0 per 100,000 women. Conclusions: The age-adjusted incidence rate of breast cancer continues to increas in Iranian women. It is predicted that this trend will continue until 2020. Therefore, it seems necessary to prioritize the prevention, control and care for breast cancer in Iran.

Keywords

References

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