Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods

The Korean Statistical Society (한국통계학회)
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Volatility spillover between the Korean KOSPI and the Hong Kong HSI stock markets

  • Baek, Eun-Ah (Department of Statistics, Ewha Womans University) ;
  • Oh, Man-Suk (Department of Statistics, Ewha Womans University)
  • Received : 2016.01.29
  • Accepted : 2016.05.11
  • Published : 2016.05.31
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Abstract

We investigate volatility spillover aspects of realized volatilities (RVs) for the log returns of the Korea Composite Stock Price Index (KOSPI) and the Hang Seng Index (HSI) from 2009-2013. For all RVs, significant long memories and asymmetries are identified. For a model selection, we consider three commonly used time series models as well as three models that incorporate long memory and asymmetry. Taking into account of goodness-of-fit and forecasting ability, Leverage heteroskedastic autoregressive realized volatility (LHAR) model is selected for the given data. The LHAR model finds significant decompositions of the spillover effect from the HSI to the KOSPI into moderate negative daily spillover, positive weekly spillover and positive monthly spillover, and from the KOSPI to the HSI into substantial negative weekly spillover and positive monthly spillover. An interesting result from the analysis is that the daily volatility spillover from the HSI to the KOSPI is significant versus the insignificant daily volatility spillover of the KOSPI to HSI. The daily volatility in Hong Kong affects next day volatility in Korea but the daily volatility in Korea does not affect next day volatility in Hong Kong.

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