Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society

The Korean Data and Information Science Society (한국데이터정보과학회)
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A statistical prediction for concentrations of Manganese in the ambient air

통계적 모형을 이용한 대기중 망간 농도 예측

  • Kwon, Hye Ji (Dongpook Branch, Statistics Korea) ;
  • Kim, Yongku (Department of Statistics, Kyungpook National University)
  • Received : 2016.01.11
  • Accepted : 2016.03.02
  • Published : 2016.05.31
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Abstract

Hazardous air pollution caused by heavy metals in the air is at a serious level. Although manganese(Mn), one of the heavy metals, is a non-carcinogenic substance, it has a harmful influence on the human body. It is partially measured because automatic monitoring technologies have not yet be fully established. We introduced a statistical model for the daily concentration of manganese. Incorporating a linkage between Mn and meteorology, the proposed model is formulated in way to identify meteorological effects and to allow for seasonal trends, enabling not only accurate measurement of manganese concentration, but also information about the evaluation on a Hazard Quotient (non-cancer risk).

최근 국내에서도 환경보건에 관한 관심이 급증하고 있는데, 특히 중금속은 발암의 특성이나 독성의 비임계성에서 대기오염물질과 구분이 되며, 낮은 수준일지라도 장기간 노출되면 호흡기계, 순환기계, 신경계 및 정신적 질환을 유발하는 것으로 알려져 있다. 이들 중금속 중 망간은 인체에 유해하지만 발암물질로 분류되지 않은 탓에, 망간 자체에 대한 연구는 미비한 편인고, 특히 망간은 자동측정장치 (AWS)를 통한 측정이 불가능하고 측정 및 분석에 고난도의 기술이 요구되어서 예산 등 비용효율성의 문제로 지속적인 관측이 불가능하다. 그러한 이유로 우리나라에서는 계절별로 10~12일 정도만 관측이 이루어지고 있다. 본 논문에서는 자동측정이 가능한 기온, 강수, 풍속 등 기상인자와 관측된 $SO_2$, $PM_{10}$, $O_3$ 등 대기질 물질을 이용한 망간 농도에 대한 통계 모형을 설계하고 이를 통해 부분적으로 관측된 망간 농도를 추정하여 망간의 위해성평가에 대한 정확도를 향상 시키고자 한다. 이를 위해 제안된 모형을 시화 반월 공업지역에서 관측된 자료를 적용하였다.

Keywords

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