Journal of the Architectural Institute of Korea Planning & Design (대한건축학회논문집:계획계)

Architectural Institute of Korea (대한건축학회)
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An Empirical Study on the Prediction of Office Market Using Panel Simultaneous Equation

패널연립방정식을 이용한 오피스 시장 예측에 관한 실증연구

  • Chun, Hae-Jung (Division Liberal Arts and Teaching, Sungkyul University)
  • 전해정 (성결대학교 파이데이아학부)
  • Received : 2016.03.30
  • Accepted : 2016.07.06
  • Published : 2016.07.30
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Abstract

This study analyzed and predicted the office market by composing a panel simultaneous equation using office data and macroeconomic variables of downtown area of Seoul-si, Gangnam district, and Mapo/Yeouido district from second quarter of 2003 to 4th quarter of 2014. This study set office vacancy rate, office maintenance fee, CD interest rate, and index of industrial product as the influencing variables on office rental price, and set office rental price, commercial building start results, and unemployment rate as the influencing variables on office vacancy rate. According to the analysis result, it was identified that vacancy rate and CD interest rate make statistically negative effect and maintenance fee makes positive effect on office rental price, and whereas rental price fell 0.016% when vacancy rate increased 1%, the rental price increased by 1.732% when maintenance fee increased 1% and index of industrial product appeared to have very little influence. It was verified that rental price, commercial building start results, and unemployment rate made statistically significant positive effect on office vacancy rate, vacancy rate increased 2.199% when rental price increased 1%, vacancy rate increased 2.285% when building start result increased 1%, and vacance rate increased 1.363% when unemployment rate increased 1%.

Keywords

References

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