International Journal of Highway Engineering (한국도로학회논문집)

Korean Society of Road Engineers (한국도로학회)
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Safety Improvement Analysis of Roundabouts in Jeollabuk-do Province using Accident Prediction Model

사고예측모형을 활용한 회전교차로 안전성 향상에 관한 연구 - 전라북도를 중심으로 -

  • 김칠현 (전주시 맑은물 사업본부 하수정비) ;
  • 권용석 (전주대학교 토목환경공학과) ;
  • 강규동 (전주대학교 토목환경공학과)
  • Received : 2016.05.27
  • Accepted : 2016.07.21
  • Published : 2016.08.16
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Abstract

PURPOSES : There are many recently constructed roundabouts in Jeollabuk-do province. This study analyzed how roundabouts reduce the risk of accidents and improve safety in the province. METHODS : This study analyzed safety improvement at roundabouts by using an accident prediction model that uses an Empirical Bayes method based on negative binomial distribution. RESULTS : The results of our analysis model showed that the total number of accidents decreased from 130 to 51. Roundabouts also decreased casualties; the number of casualties decreased from 7 to 0 and the seriously wounded from 87 to 16. The effectiveness of accident reduction as analyzed by the accident prediction model with the Empirical Bayes method was 60%. CONCLUSIONS : The construction of roundabouts can bring about a reduction in the number of accidents and casualties, and make intersections safer.

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