Journal of Korea Water Resources Association (한국수자원학회논문집)

Korea Water Resources Association (한국수자원학회)
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Input output transfer function model development for a prediction of cyanobacteria cell number in Youngsan River

영산강 수계에서 남조류 세포수 모의를 위한 입출력 모형의 개발

  • Lee, Eunhyung (Dept. Environmental Engineering, Pusan National University) ;
  • Kim, Kyunghyun (Water Environment Research Department, Water Quality Control Center, National Institute of Environmental Research, Ministry of Environment) ;
  • Kim, Sanghyun (Dept. Environmental Engineering, Pusan National University)
  • 이은형 (부산대학교 환경공학과) ;
  • 김경현 (국립환경과학원 수질통합관리센터) ;
  • 김상현 (부산대학교 환경공학과)
  • Received : 2016.02.02
  • Accepted : 2016.08.18
  • Published : 2016.09.30
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Abstract

Frequent algal blooms at major river systems in Korea have been serious social and environmental problems. Especially, the appearance of cyanobacteria with toxic materials is a threat to secure a safe drinking water. In order to model the behaviour of cyanobacteria cell number, an exclusive causality analysis using prewhitening technique was introduced to delineate effective parameters to predict the cell numbers of cyanobacteria in Seungchon Weir and Juksan Weir along Youngsan river system. Both input and output transfer function models were obtained to explain temporal variation of cyanobacteria cell number. A threshold behaviour of water temperature was implemented into the model development to consider winter characteristic of cyanobacteria. The implementation of water temperature threshold into the model structure improves the predictability in simulation. Even though the input output transfer model cannot completely explained all blooms of cyanobacteria, the simple structure of model provide a feasibility in application which can be important in practical aspect.

최근의 우리나라 수계에서의 하천에서의 조류 대번성은 심각한 사회 환경적 문제가 되고 있다. 이중 독성이 강한 남조류의 발현은 수생태계의 건강성과 안전한 물공급에 위협이 될 수 있다. 영산강 수계의 승촌보와 죽산보 지점의 남조류 세포수와 환경인자간의 인과관계 분석을 위해 선백색화 시계열간의 배타적 상관분석을 수행하였고 이를 기반으로 이들 사이의 입출력 모형을 도출하였다. 입출력 모형의 겨울철 남조류 세포수 반응 특성을 고려하기 위해서 수온의 문턱거동을 도입하였고, 모형의 남조류 세포수에 대한 설명력을 증가시키는 효과를 얻었다. 입출력 모형의 남조류 세포수의 모의능이 완전하진 않으나, 비교적 간단한 구조를 가진 입출력 모형의 구조는 모형 적용의 용이성이 높은 것으로 판단된다.

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