Environmental and Resource Economics Review (자원ㆍ환경경제연구)

Korean Resource Economics Association (한국자원경제학회)
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Can Agricultural Aid and Remittances Alleviate Macroeconomic Volatility in Response to Climate Change Shocks?

아프리카 국가들의 경제성장률 변동성에 기후변화, 송금 및 농업 원조가 미치는 영향 분석

  • You, Soobin (Graduate School of International Agricultural Technology, Seoul National University) ;
  • Kim, Taeyoon (Graduate School of International Agricultural Technology, Institutes of Green Bio Science and Technology, Seoul National University)
  • 유수빈 (서울대 국제농업기술대학원) ;
  • 김태윤 (서울대 국제농업기술대학원)
  • Received : 2016.07.02
  • Accepted : 2016.12.07
  • Published : 2016.12.31
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Abstract

This study investigates the effect of remittance and agricultural aid inflows on GDP growth rate volatility in response to climate change shocks in twenty-eight African countries by using system generalized method of moments from 1996 to 2013 with three years grouped data. The climate change shocks are indicated by four variables; natural disasters, rainfall variability, fluctuation in temperature and the weighted anomaly standardized precipitation (WASP) index. Consequently, natural disasters and temperature variability have a significant effect on GDP volatility, while rainfall variability and WASP index have no adverse consequence on stabilization of the economy. On the other hand, in general, remittances and agricultural aid are helpful to stabilize the economy and especially remittances inflows can play a crucial role as insurance when natural disasters occur.

본 연구는 1996년부터 2013년의 경제성장률의 변동성 데이터를 이용하여 아프리카 28개국의 경제적 안정성에 영향을 미치는 요인을 분석한 것이다. 28개 아프리카 국가의 1996년 부터 2013년의 연도별 자료를 3년씩 따로 분류하여 총 6개의 시계열 자료를 구축하고 이를 토대로 패널 분석을 수행하였다. 송금 및 농업원조와 경제성장률의 변동성 간의 내생성 문제를 해결하기 위하여 system-GMM (system-Generalized Method of Moments)을 이용하였다. 분석결과 기후변화를 대표하는 요인 중 자연재해와 온도의 변동성만이 경제 안정성을 악화시키는 요인으로 나타났다. 반면 송금과 농업원조자금은 아프리카 국가들의 경제를 안정시키는 효과를 보이며, 특히 송금의 경우 자연재해 발생에 따른 경제 변동성을 감소시키는 보험의 역할을 하는 것으로 판단된다.

Keywords

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