Journal of the Society of Disaster Information (한국재난정보학회 논문집)

The Korean Society of Disaster Information (한국재난정보학회)
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Literature Review on the relation between Animals Unusual Behavior and Premonitory Symptoms of an Earthquake

동물 이상행동과 지진전조 가설검증 연구동향 및 한계점

  • Lee, Sohee (Disaster Information Research Division, National Disaster Management Research Institute) ;
  • Park, Youngjin (Disaster Information Research Division, National Disaster Management Research Institute)
  • Received : 2017.02.13
  • Accepted : 2017.03.22
  • Published : 2017.03.31
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Abstract

The cases of animals unusual behavior have been reported occasionally before a major disaster occurs. Could animals unusual behavior associated with a major disaster occurrence, if so, could we foreknow a disaster occurrence? The purpose of study is to quest an answer through literature reviews on the relation between animals unusual behavior and premonitory symptoms of an earthquake. These empirical studies are classified three parts according as methodological framework; statistical analysis, experimental analysis, observation analysis. The results are simply divided as two, 'animals unusual behavior may be seen as a precursor of pre-disaster phenomena' and 'difficult to see.' A number of studies have been performed abroad, however there is no one in Korea. Most of the studies point out common limitations-difficult to verify the reliability of data, accidentally get and fewer samples of data, difficulty of ensuring appropriate data, etc. That is why more related research with animals unusual behavior and disaster occurrence is needed to validate cause-and-effect relation of animal unusual behavior and pre-disaster phenomena.

대형재해 발생 전 동물 이상행동 목격사례가 심심치 않게 보도되고 있다. 동물 이상행동이 대형재해 발생과 연관이 있을까, 그렇다면 재해발생을 예지할 수 있을까? 본 연구의 목적은 동물 이상행동과 지진전조 관련 선행연구 고찰을 통해 이에 대한 해답을 탐구(探求)해 봄에 있다. 본 연구에서는 분석방법론에 따라 사례조사, 실험분석, 관찰 분석을 통한 가설검증 연구와 그 한계점을 고찰하였다. 선행연구는 결과적으로 '동물 이상행동을 전조현상으로 볼 수도 있다'와 '보기 어렵다'로 이분되며, 양쪽 모두 다수의 연구가 수행되었다. 그러나 관련연구에서는 데이터의 신뢰성 검증이 어렵고, 우연하게 계측된 데이터의 적은 샘플 수, 적합한 데이터 확보의 어려움 등 공통된 한계점을 지적하고 있다. 이에 지진예지에의 활용 가능성 검토단계에 이르기 위해서는 동물 이상행동과 지진발생과의 인과관계에 대한 과학적 검증이 선행되어야 한다.

Keywords

References

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