Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society

The Korean Data and Information Science Society (한국데이터정보과학회)
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A case study of small area estimation about charter and monthly rent price index

소지역모형 추정기법을 활용한 전·월세 추정

  • Received : 2017.02.20
  • Accepted : 2017.03.16
  • Published : 2017.03.31
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Abstract

In this study we compared three models for small area estimation, Fay-Herriot, Hierarchical Bayses model and spatio-temporal model about charter, monthly rent price index. Charter, monthly rent price of Korea are important issue in these days. Because housing type rapidly changes from self to charter and monthly rent. The accuracy of the estimation was checked on four scales, that is ARB, ASRB, AAB, ASD. In this result, the spatio-temporal model among applied models has most optimal scales about small area estimation of charter and monthly rent index.

조사를 통한 자료생성은 시간과 경제적인 제약이 많고, 조사 방법 및 특성에 따라 자료의 질이 결정되며, 수집된 조사정보를 통계정보로 활용하기까지 오랜 시간이 소요된다. 이와 같은 어려움을 줄이고자 조사 표본설계 단위 보다 작은 지역 또는 다른 영역에 대한 자료를 기존에 조사된 자료 및 행정자료를 이용하여 추정하는 소지역추정 통계방법 활용 연구는 꾸준히 진행되고 있다. 따라서 본 논문에서는 소지역추정기법을 이용하여 인간이 기본적인 삶을 영위하는데 반드시 필요한 필수재이며, 동시에 우리나라에서 투자재로서의 특징을 나타내는 주택과 관련하여, 요즈음 새로운 주거형태를 차지하는 전세와 월세 지수에 모형기반 소지역추정기법을 적용하고자 한다. 적용된 소지역추정 모형은 회귀모형 추정법, 계층적 베이지안 추정법, 시-공간적 추정법이며, 분석결과 전세와 월세에서 시-공간적 추정모형이 가장 효율적인 것으로 나타났다.

Keywords

References

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