Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society

The Korean Data and Information Science Society (한국데이터정보과학회)
권호 표지
DOI QR코드

DOI QR Code

Fit of the number of insurance solicitor's turnovers using zero-inflated negative binomial regression

영과잉 음이항회귀 모형을 이용한 보험설계사들의 이직횟수 적합

  • Chun, Heuiju (Department of Statistics & Information, Dongduk Women's University)
  • 전희주 (동덕여자대학교 정보통계학과)
  • Received : 2017.08.07
  • Accepted : 2017.09.15
  • Published : 2017.09.30
Download PDF
⟨ Previous Next ⟩

Abstract

This study aims to find the best model to fit the number of insurance solicitor's turnovers of life insurance companies using count data regression models such as poisson regression, negative binomial regression, zero-inflated poisson regression, or zero-inflated negative binomial regression. Out of the four models, zero-inflated negative binomial model has been selected based on AIC and SBC criteria, which is due to over-dispersion and high proportion of zero-counts. The significant factors to affect insurance solicitor's turnover found to be a work period in current company, a total work period as financial planner, an affiliated corporation, and channel management satisfaction. We also have found that as the job satisfaction or the channel management satisfaction gets lower as channel management satisfaction, the number of insurance solicitor's turnovers increases. In addition, the total work period as financial planner has positive relationship with the number of insurance solicitor's turnovers, but the work period in current company has negative relationship with it.

본 연구는 계수자료 (count data)를 반응변수로 갖는 포아송회귀 모형, 음이항회귀 모형, 영과잉 포아송회귀 모형, 영과잉 음이항회귀 모형의 4 모형의 비교를 통해 보험 설계사들의 이직횟수 적합을 위한 최적모형을 찾고자 한다. 보험설계사 이직횟수의 분산이 평균보다 큰 과대산포가 존재하고 0인 경우의 비중이 높을 경우에 영과잉 음이항회귀 모형을 적합하는 것이 타당함을 보여주고 보험 설계사들의 이직횟수에 영향을 주는 요인을 규명하고자 한다. 로그우도값, AIC, SBC 등을 고려하여 보험설계사 이직횟수 적합을 최적의 모형은 영과잉 이항모형과 음이항회귀모형의 결합인 영과잉 음이항 모형이 선택되었다. 영과잉 이항모형에 포함된 변수로는 성별, 총 보험설계사 근무연월, 교차모집 설계사 등록, 보유고객 수, 소속회사 유형이었고, 음이항회귀 모형에 포함된 변수로는 직무만족, 조직몰입, 채널경영만족, 총 보험설계사 근무연월, 현 직장에서 근무연월, 소속회사 유형이었다. 영과잉 음이항회귀 모형의 적합결과, 이직횟수에 유의한 영향을 주는 요인으로는 현 직장에서 근무연월, 총 보험설계사 근무연월, 소속회사 유형, 채널경영만족, 직무만족 순으로 나타났다.

Keywords

References

  1. Ahn, C., Hwang, J. and Seo, S. (2011). A study on life insurance solicitors' business activities and job satisfaction, Korea Insurance Research Institute, Seoul.
  2. Ahn. C. and Kwon, O. (2009). The reason of turnover of insurance solicitors and its implication, Insurance Trend, Korea Insurance Research Institute, Seoul.
  3. Cameron, A. C. and Trivedi, P. K. (1998). Regression analysis of count data, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge.
  4. Chun, H. (2015). Analysis of life planners' satisfaction using structural equation model. Journal of the Korean Data Analysis Society, 17, 1897-1909.
  5. Chun, H. (2016). The factors of insurance solicitor's turnovers of life insurance using Poisson regression. Journal of the Korean Data & Information Science Society, 27, 1337-1347. https://doi.org/10.7465/jkdi.2016.27.5.1337
  6. Chun, H. and Ahn, C. (2012). A study on organizational outcome of life insurance soicitors using negative binomial regression model. Journal of Insurance and Finance Research, 23, 29-60.
  7. Cox, D. R. (1983). Some remarks on overdispersion. Biometrika, 70, 497-505.
  8. Cutton, J. L. and Tuttle, J. M. (1986). Employee turnover: A meta-analysis and review with implications for research. Academy of Management Review, 11, 55-70. https://doi.org/10.5465/amr.1986.4282625
  9. Financial Supervisory Service (2016). http://fisis.fss.or.kr
  10. Griffeth, R. W., Hom, P. W. and Gaertner, S. (2000). A meta-analysis of antecedents and correlates of employee turnover, update, moderator tests, and research implications for the next millennium. Journal of Management, 26, 463-488.
  11. Gurmu, S. (1991). Tests for detecting overdispersion in the positive Poisson regression model. Journal of Business and Economic Statistics, 9, 215-222.
  12. Hom. P. W., Mitchell, T. R., Lee, T. W. and Griffeth, R. W. (2012). Reviewing employee turnover: focusing on proximal withdrawal states and an expanded criterion. Psychological Bulletin, 138, 831. https://doi.org/10.1037/a0027983
  13. Ju, H. (2004). Analyzing the relation among organizational structure, organizational culture and organizational effectiveness : Focusing on sub-departments by work patterns. The Journal of Public Affairs, 42, 29-53.
  14. Jung, G., Kim, J. and Jung, S. (2014). The effect of organizational identification on turnover intention of insurance solicitor of life insurance company. Journal of Insurance and Finance Research, 25, 37-60.
  15. Kim, H., Choi, J., Song, J., Oh, E. and Yoo, G. (2011). The effect of reasons for keeping and quitting the profession on job satisfaction. Early Childhood Education Research & Review, 15, 91-116.
  16. Kim, J. and Jung, S. (2014). The effect of satisfaction with internal marketing mix on turnover intention of insurance solicitor. The Journal of Risk Management, 25, 81-109. https://doi.org/10.21480/tjrm.25.1.201406.004
  17. Kwon, S. (2009). The relationship between job stress and turnover intention of independent contractors in Korea : The test of moderating effect of union membership and job voluntariness. Quarterly Journal of Labor Policy, 9, 119-156.
  18. Lee, D. R., Ahn, C. K. and Kwon, I. S. (2010). Determinants of turnover of life insurance solicitors. The Korean Personnel Administration Journal, 17, 285-304.
  19. Lee, D. and Chun, H. (2013). Analysis of factor of life planners' satisfaction after turnover using the cumulative logit model. Journal of the Korean Data & Information Science Society, 24, 1369-1384. https://doi.org/10.7465/jkdi.2013.24.6.1369
  20. Lee, H. (2015). A study on the effects of organizational justice in Local governments performance-oriented human resource management on civil servants job satisfaction, organizational commitment and job performance: Focused on Busan. The Korean Journal of Local Government Studies, 19, 53-75.
  21. Lee, K. (2014). A study of the relationship between organizational characteristics and effectiveness in the central administrative agencies of Korea. The Journal of Public Affairs, 52, 1-34.
  22. Lee, Y. (2005). Relationships among job satisfaction, intent to leave and separation behavior for nonstandard workers: Comparison with regular workers. Korean Journal of Management, 13, 35-63.
  23. Nam, S. and Kim, M. S. (2009). A study on the effects of internal marketing on customer orientation in social welfare institutes for the disabled-job satisfaction and organizational commitment as mediating factors. Korean NPO Review, 8, 125-153.
  24. Nunnally, J. C. and Bernstein, I. H. (1994). Psychometric theory (3rd ed.), McGraw-Hill, New York.
  25. Park, S., Cho, J. and Hahn, M. (2004). Theoretical study on type and reason of handicapped employees'turnover. Korean Society of Vocational Rehabilitation Review, 14, 73-105.
  26. Park, H. I., Nam, S. K. and Yang, E. (2011). Relationships of burnout with job attitudes and turnover intention among koreans: A meta-analysis. Korean Journal of Industrial Operational Psychology, 24, 457-491. https://doi.org/10.24230/ksiop.24.3.201108.457
  27. Park, K. J. and Oh, Y. J. (2013). The job stress, personal relationship supervision and job satisfaction of caregivers working in care facilities: Testing the moderating effect of supervision. Korean Journal of Gerontological Social Welfare, 60, 7-13.
  28. Park, S., Ryu, J., Kim, J. and Cho, J. (2015). The study on the determinants of the number of job changes. Journal of the Korean Data & Information Science Society, 26, 387-397. https://doi.org/10.7465/jkdi.2015.26.2.387
  29. Waight, J. and Madera, J. M. (2011). Diversity training: Examining minority employees' organizational attitudes. Worldwide Hospitality and Tourism Themes, 3, 609-619.