Transactions of the Korean Society of Mechanical Engineers A (대한기계학회논문집A)

The Korean Society of Mechanical Engineers (대한기계학회)
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Parameter Estimation and Reliability Analysis Using Bayesian Approach for Bolted Joint and O-ring Seal of Solid Rocket Motor

고체 로켓 모터의 체결 볼트와 오링에 대한 베이지안 접근법 기반 모수 추정과 신뢰성 해석

  • 강진혁 ((주)브이이엔지) ;
  • 최주호 (한국항공대학교 항공우주 및 기계공학부)
  • Received : 2017.03.20
  • Accepted : 2017.06.12
  • Published : 2017.11.01
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Abstract

Since a device such as a rocket motor requires very high reliability, a reasonable reliability design process is essential. However, Korea has implemented a design method for applying a safety factor to each component. In classic reliability analysis, input variables such as mean and standard deviation, used in the limit state function, are treated as deterministic values. Because the mean and standard deviation are determined by a small amount of data, this approach could lead to inaccurate results. In this study, reliability analysis is performed for bolted joints and o-ring seals, and the Bayesian approach is used to statistically estimate the input variables. The estimated variables and failure probability, calculated by the reliability analysis, are derived in the form of probability distributions.

로켓 모터와 같은 일회성 시스템은 매우 높은 신뢰도를 요구하기 때문에 합리적인 신뢰성 설계 방안이 필요한데 아직 국내에서는 단순히 각 부품별로 안전 계수를 부여하는 설계 방법을 적용해 왔다. 고전적인 신뢰성 해석에서는 한계 상태 함수에 사용되는 변수가 단일 값으로 입력되고 몇 개의 실험 데이터에 대하여 단순히 평균과 표준 편차를 취한 뒤 그 값을 신뢰성 해석에 사용하기 때문에 로켓 모터와 같이 높은 수준의 신뢰도를 요구하는 시스템에서 위험한 결과를 도출할 수 있다. 본 연구에서는 로켓 모터의 체결 볼트와 오링을 대상으로 베이지안 접근법을 활용하여 입력 변수를 통계적으로 추정하고 이를 통한 신뢰성 해석을 수행하였다. 추정된 변수는 확률 분포 형태로 도출되며 신뢰성 해석 결과로 계산되는 실패 확률 역시 분포로 주어지기 때문에 객관적이고 정량적인 설계 기준을 설정할 수 있다.

Keywords

Acknowledgement

Supported by : 국방과학연구소

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