Environmental Engineering Research

  • 제23권4호
  • /
  • Pages.406-419
  • /
  • 2018
  • /
  • 1226-1025(pISSN)
  • /
  • 2005-968X(eISSN)
대한환경공학회 (Korean Society of Environmental Engineers)
권호 표지
DOI QR코드

DOI QR Code

Development of a model to forecast the external migration rate in development projects reflecting city characteristics

  • Kim, Ki-Bum (Department of Environmental Engineering, University of Seoul) ;
  • Park, Joon (International School of Urban Sciences, University of Seoul) ;
  • Seo, Jee-Won (Department of Environmental Engineering, University of Seoul) ;
  • Yu, Young-Jun (Business Development Division, K-water) ;
  • Hyun, In-Hwan (Department of Civil and Environment Engineering, Dankook University) ;
  • Koo, Ja-Yong (Department of Environmental Engineering, University of Seoul)
  • 투고 : 2017.11.07
  • 심사 : 2018.04.09
  • 발행 : 2018.12.31
PDF 다운로드
⟨ 이전 논문 다음 논문 ⟩

초록

In planning public service systems such as waterworks, the design population is very important factor. Owing to the limitations of the indirect method, two new models, which take into consideration urban characteristics, were developed to accurately predict external migration rate (EMR), which is an essential component in estimating reliably the design population. The root mean square error (RMSE) between the model values and observed values were 10.12 and 15.58 for the metropolitan cities and counties respectively and were lower compared to RMSE values of 27.31 and 28.79 obtained by the indirect method. Thus, the developed models provide a more accurate estimate of EMR than the indirect method. In addition, the major influencing factors for external migration in counties were development type, ageing index, number of businesses. On the other hand, the major influencing migration factors for cities were project scale, distance to city center, manufacturing size, population growth rate and residential environment. Future medium and long-term studies would be done to identify emerging trends to appropriately inform policy making.

키워드

참고문헌

  1. Kent TJ. The urban general plan. Chicage: Planners Press; 1990.
  2. Kwon HB. A study on the application of external migration rate in the population forecast - Focused on the Pyeongtaek city [master thesis] Gyeonggi: Gachon Univ.; 2012.
  3. MOLIT and MOE. Guidelines for predict water supply. Daejeon: MOLIT and MOE; 2008.
  4. MOLIT and MOE. Guidelines for predict water supply. Daejeon: MOLIT and MOE; 2014.
  5. Balogun II, Sojobi AO, Galkaye E. Public water supply in Logos State, Nigeria: Review of importance and challenges, status and concerns and pragmatic solutions. Cogent Eng. 2917;4:1329776.
  6. Molloy R, Smith CL, Wozniak A. Job changing and the decline in long-distance migration in the United States. Demography 2017;54:631-653. https://doi.org/10.1007/s13524-017-0551-9
  7. McCatty M. The process of rural-urban migration in developing countries. An honours essay submitted in fulfilment of the degree of Bachelor of Arts to Department of Economics, Carleton University, Ottawa, Ontario; 2004.
  8. Clark W, Withers S. Family migration and mobility sequences in the United States: Spatial mobility in the context of the life course. Demogr. Res. 2008;17:591-622.
  9. Miheretu BA. Causes and consequences of rural-urban migration: The case of Woldiya town [doctoral dissertation]. North Ethiopia; 2011.
  10. Yoo KM. An empirical analysis on the determinants of population movement: In case of Korea (1966-1985). The Korean Econ. Assoc. Kyongjehak Yongu 1991;39:157-209.
  11. Kim ST, Jang JH. Empirical analysis on the economic determinants of regional migration in Korea during 1970-1991 period. The Korea Int. Economic Assoc. Kukje Kyungje Yongu 1997;3:175-197.
  12. Lee EW. Quality of life and interregional migration in Korea. J. Korean Natl. Econ. 1998;7:233-254.
  13. Lee W. A study on the determinants on migration in Kyonggi-Do. J. Korea Plan. Assoc. 2000;35:67-76.
  14. Lee W, Park EK. A study on the migration to large-scale residential development areas. Gyeonggi: Kyonggi Research Institute; 2001.
  15. Kim GS, Jang W. The study on characteristics of population movement within Busan. J. Korea Plan. Assoc. 2001;36:39-55.
  16. Kim HB, Choi JS. A study on population projection for infrastructure sizing in housing development sites. Korea Planning Association - 2001 autumn conference proceeding 1; 2001. p. 483-501.
  17. Kwon SC. Migration to the capital region in Korea: Assessing the relative importance of place characteristics and migrant selectivity. J. Korean Assoc. Region. Geogr. 2005;11:571-584.
  18. Choi DS, Kim TG. The estimation of the intra-regional ratio of moving-in population into residential land development area. Seoul Stud. 2009;10:105-119.
  19. Lee W, Lee JE. A study on in-migration characteristic in the second generation of newtown, the capital area. Gyeonggi: Kyonggi Research Institute; 2007.
  20. Jeon YS. A study on population inmigration effect of different types of development project in Kyeonggi-do. J. Korea Plan. Assoc. 2009;44:113-123.
  21. Hur JW. An empirical analysis on the determinants of the external migration rate in the housing development sites in Gyeonggi province. J. Korean Region. Dev. Assoc. 2010;22:47-61.
  22. Lee MH. A study on the determinants of the external migration rate to the residential development project areas - In and around the metropolitan residential development project areas [master thesis]. Seoul: Chungang Univ.; 2011.