KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research (대한토목학회논문집)

Korean Society of Civil Engeneers (대한토목학회)
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Estimation of Flood Quantile in Ungauged Watersheds for Flood Damage Analysis Based on Flood Index of Natural Flow

미계측 유역의 홍수피해분석을 위한 자연유량의 홍수지표 기반 확률홍수량 산정

  • 채병석 (한양대학교 대학원 건설환경공학과) ;
  • 최시중 (한국건설기술연구원 수자원.하천연구소) ;
  • 안재현 (서경대학교 공과대학 토목건축공학과) ;
  • 김태웅 (한양대학교 공학대학 건설환경공학과)
  • Received : 2017.12.08
  • Accepted : 2017.12.28
  • Published : 2018.02.01
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Abstract

In this study, flood quantiles were estimated at ungauged watersheds by adjusting the flood quantiles from the design rainfall - runoff analysis (DRRA) method based on regional frequency analysis. Comparing the flood frequency analysis (FFA) and DRRA, it was found that the flood quantiles estimated by the DRRA method were overestimated by 52%. In addition, a practical method was suggested to make an flood index using natural flows to apply the regional frequency analysis (RFA) to ungauged watersheds. Considering the relationships among DRRA, FFA, and RFA, we derived an adjusting formula that can be applied to estimate flood quantiles at ungauged watersheds. We also employed Leave-One-Out Cross-Validation scheme and skill score to verify the method proposed in this study. As a result, the proposed model increased the accuracy by 23.2% compared to the existing DRRA method.

본 연구에서는 설계 강우-유출 관계 분석법으로 산정된 값을 지역빈도해석 기법을 바탕으로 보정하여 미계측 유역에서의 확률홍수량을 산정하는 방법을 제안하였다. 홍수빈도해석법과 설계 강우-유출 관계 분석법을 비교 분석한 결과, 설계 강우-유출 관계 분석법으로 산정된 확률홍수량이 약 52% 과대 산정되는 것으로 나타났다. 또한, 미계측 유역의 확률홍수량을 산정하기 위해서 유역 특성인자를 자연유량으로 지표화 하여 지역빈도해석법을 수행하였다. 이와 같은 세 가지 방법의 설계홍수량 산정법을 기반으로 미계측 유역을 대상으로 적용할 수 있는 보정식을 도출하였다. 미계측 유역에 대한 적용성을 검토하기 위해 Leave-One-Out Cross-Validation 기법과 Skill Score 기법을 적용하였다. 그 결과, 정확도가 기존의 설계 강우-유출 관계 분석법보다 23.2% 증가한 것으로 나타났다.

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References

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