Journal of the Korea Institute of Information and Communication Engineering (한국정보통신학회논문지)

The Korea Institute of Information and Commucation Engineering (한국정보통신학회)
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Quantitative Analysis of Gartner's "Hype Cycle for Emerging Technologies"

가트너 "부상하는 기술을 위한 Hype Cycle"의 정량적 분석

  • Park, Yoo-hyun (Department of Computer Software Engineering, Dongeui University)
  • Received : 2018.05.14
  • Accepted : 2018.06.21
  • Published : 2018.08.31
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Abstract

Gartner's Hype Cycle model is widely used to describe technology maturity, acceptability, and commercialization. In the Hype Cycle model, the techniques go through five stages, those are Innovation Trigger(first stage), stage Peak of Inflated Expectations(second stage), Trough of Disillusionment(third stage), Slope of Enlightenment(fourth stage) and Plateau of Productivity(fifth stage). In many studies, Hype Cycle is widely used as a basis for future prediction of technology, but the verification is somewhat lacking. In this paper, we analyzed the technologies that appeared in the Hype Cycle for the emerging technologies from 1995 to 2017. Through this, we found technologies that appeared as non first stage when first appearing, and techniques that showed a reversal of the maturity stage. In addition, we found that none of the technologies from 1995 to 2017 had gone through stages 1-5.

가트너(Gartner)의 Hype Cycle 모델은 기술의 성숙도, 수용도, 사업화 수준을 표현하기 위해 널리 활용되고 있다. Hype Cycle 모델에서 기술들은 5단계의 과정을 거치게 되는데 이는 1단계인 발생기로 시작하여, 2단계인 버블기, 3단계인 환멸기, 4단계인 계몽기를 거쳐 5단계인 안정기에 도달하게 된다. 많은 연구들에서 Hype Cycle을 활용하여 기술에 대한 미래 예측의 근거로 많이 활용되고 있지만 이에 대한 검증은 다소 부족한 부분이 있었다. 본 논문에서는 1995년부터 2017년까지의 부상하는 기술을 위한 Hype Cycle(Hype Cycle for Emerging Technologies)에 등장하는 기술들을 분석 하였다. 이를 통하여 최초 등장할 때 1단계가 아닌 단계로 등장한 기술들과 성숙단계가 역전되는 현상을 보인 기술들을 발견하였다. 또한, 1995년부터 2017년까지의 기술 중에서 1-5단계를 거친 기술이 한번도 없었다는 사실을 발견하였다.

Keywords

References

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