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Stacking Ensemble Learning을 활용한 블록 탑재 시수 예측

A Study on the Work-time Estimation for Block Erections Using Stacking Ensemble Learning

  • 권혁천 (충남대학교 선박해양공학과 대학원) ;
  • 유원선 (충남대학교 선박해양공학과)
  • Kwon, Hyukcheon (Graduate School, Dept. of Naval Architecture & Ocean Engineering, Chungnam National University) ;
  • Ruy, Wonsun (Dept. of Naval Architecture & Ocean Engineering, Chungnam National University)
  • 투고 : 2019.08.19
  • 심사 : 2019.09.18
  • 발행 : 2019.12.20

초록

The estimation of block erection work time at a dock is one of the important factors when establishing or managing the total shipbuilding schedule. In order to predict the work time, it is a natural approach that the existing block erection data would be used to solve the problem. Generally the work time per unit is the product of coefficient value, quantity, and product value. Previously, the work time per unit is determined statistically by unit load data. However, we estimate the work time per unit through work time coefficient value from series ships using machine learning. In machine learning, the outcome depends mainly on how the training data is organized. Therefore, in this study, we use 'Feature Engineering' to determine which one should be used as features, and to check their influence on the result. In order to get the coefficient value of each block, we try to solve this problem through the Ensemble learning methods which is actively used nowadays. Among the many techniques of Ensemble learning, the final model is constructed by Stacking Ensemble techniques, consisting of the existing Ensemble models (Decision Tree, Random Forest, Gradient Boost, Square Loss Gradient Boost, XG Boost), and the accuracy is maximized by selecting three candidates among all models. Finally, the results of this study are verified by the predicted total work time for one ship among the same series.

키워드

참고문헌

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