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Korean Meteorological Society (한국기상학회)
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Quantitative Analysis of Random Errors of the WRF-FLEXPART Model for Backward-in-time Simulation over the Seoul Metropolitan Area

수도권 영역의 시간 후방 모드 WRF-FLEXPART 모의를 위한 입자 수에 따른 무작위 오차의 정량 분석

  • Woo, Ju-Wan (Department of Atmospheric Science, Kongju National University) ;
  • Lee, Jae-Hyeong (Department of Atmospheric Science, Kongju National University) ;
  • Lee, Sang-Hyun (Department of Atmospheric Science, Kongju National University)
  • 우주완 (공주대학교 자연과학대학 대기과학과) ;
  • 이재형 (공주대학교 자연과학대학 대기과학과) ;
  • 이상현 (공주대학교 자연과학대학 대기과학과)
  • Received : 2019.07.27
  • Accepted : 2019.09.23
  • Published : 2019.12.31
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Abstract

Quantitative understanding of a random error that is associated with Lagrangian particle dispersion modeling is a prerequisite for backward-in-time mode simulations. This study aims to quantify the random error of the WRF-FLEXPART model and suggest an optimum number of the Lagrangian particles for backward-in-time simulations over the Seoul metropolitan area. A series of backward-in-time simulations of the WRF-FLEXPART model has conducted at two receptor points by changing the number of Lagrangian particles and the relative error, as a quantitative indicator of random error, is analyzed to determine the optimum number of the release particles. The results show that in the Seoul metropolitan area a 1-day Lagrangian transport contributes 80~90% in residence time and ~100% in atmospheric enhancement of carbon monoxide. The relative errors in both the residence time and the atmospheric concentration enhancement are larger when the particles release in the daytime than in the nighttime, and in the inland area than in the coastal area. The sensitivity simulations reveal that the relative errors decrease with increasing the number of Lagrangian particles. The use of small number of Lagrangian particles caused significant random errors, which is attributed to the random number sampling process. For the particle number of 6000, the relative error in the atmospheric concentration enhancement is estimated as -6% ± 10% with reduction of computational time to 21% ± 7% on average. This study emphasizes the importance of quantitative analyses of the random errors in interpreting backward-in-time simulations of the WRF-FLEXPART model and in determining the number of Lagrangian particles as well.

Keywords

References

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