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Korean Meteorological Society (한국기상학회)
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The Precipitation Climate of South Korea and the Dichotomous Categorical Verification Indices

남한 강수 기후와 이분 범주 예보 검증 지수

  • Lim, Gyu-Ho (School of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Seoul National University)
  • 임규호 (서울대학교 지구환경과학부)
  • Received : 2019.10.09
  • Accepted : 2019.11.24
  • Published : 2019.12.31
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Abstract

To find any effects of precipitation climate on the forecast verification methods, we processed the hourly records of precipitation over South Korea. We examined their relationship between the climate and the methods of verification. Precipitation is an intermittent process in South Korea, generally less than an hour or so. Percentile ratio of precipitation period against the entire period of the records is only 14% in the hourly amounts of precipitation. The value of the forecast verification indices heavily depends on the climate of rainfall. The direct comparison of the index values might force us to have a mistaken appraisal on the level of the forecast capability of a weather forecast center. The size of the samples for verification is not crucial as long as it is large enough to satisfy statistical stability. Our conclusion is still temporal rather than conclusive. We may need the amount of precipitation per minute for the confirmation of the present results.

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References

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