Journal of the Architectural Institute of Korea Structure & Construction (대한건축학회논문집:구조계)

Architectural Institute of Korea (대한건축학회)
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Cross-border Relationship Analysis Between Base Interest Rates and Construction Investment

국경을 넘어선 기준금리와 건설투자 간의 관계 분석

  • Received : 2018.10.18
  • Accepted : 2019.01.14
  • Published : 2019.01.30
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Abstract

As the zero interest rate era was over with the end of quantitative easing, the economy of several global markets observed the fluctuations of the base interest rate. Interest rate, which is the change of money value with respect to time, is negatively correlated with construction investment. Considering the characteristics of interest rates and construction investment as economic variables, the necessity of cross-border analysis between base interest rate and construction investment was suggested in this paper. Cross-correlation analysis between base interest rates and construction investment crossing the border was performed. The effective correlations were confirmed with values varying by countries. Similar characteristics were also observed among countries with similar economy, which were then divided into three groups. Additionally, identifying the base interest rate that affects the construction investment of a particular country was made possible by reflecting a self-cycle of base interest rates. Lastly, from the result of examining the influence of each rise and fall of the interest rate, it was verified that the difference was more than twice as large in some countries. These results are expected to contribute to construction-related policy makers or investors to make decisions in response to the economic status of the construction market.

Keywords

Acknowledgement

Supported by : 국토교통부

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