KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research (대한토목학회논문집)

Korean Society of Civil Engeneers (대한토목학회)
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Analysis of Public Transport Ridership during a Heavy Snowfall in Seoul

기상상황에 따른 서울시 대중교통 이용 변화 분석: 폭설을 중심으로

  • Received : 2019.11.07
  • Accepted : 2019.11.17
  • Published : 2019.12.01
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Abstract

Severe weather conditions, such as heavy snowfall, rain, heatwave, etc., may affect travel behaviors of people and finally change traffic patterns in transportation networks. To deal with those changes and prevent any negative impacts on the transportation system, understanding those impacts of severe weather conditions on the travel patterns is one of the critical issues in the transportation fields. Hence, this study has focused on the impacts of a weather condition on travel patterns of public transportations, especially when a heavy snowfall which is one of the most critical weather conditions. First, this study has figured out the most significant weather condition affecting changes of public transport ridership using weather information, card data for public transportation, mobile phone data; and then, developed a decision-tree model to determine complex inter-relations between various factors such as socio-economic indicators, transportation-related information, etc. As a result, the trip generation of public transportations in Seoul during a heavy snowfall is mostly related to average access times to subway stations by walk and the number of available parking lots and spaces. Meanwhile, the trip attraction is more related to business and employment densities in that destination.

기상상황(폭염, 폭우, 한파, 폭설)은 대중교통 통행 및 이용 패턴에 영향을 미치는 중요한 변수 중의 하나이며, 시스템의 예측가능성과 안정성을 중시하는 교통분야에서 이러한 기상의 영향을 이해하는 것은 매우 중요한 요소중의 하나이다. 그러므로 본 연구에서는, 서울시를 대상으로 기상상황에 따른 대중교통 이용 변화를 분석하고 해석하고자 하였다. 먼저, 기상, 모바일폰통신, 대중교통카드 자료를 이용하여 각 기상 상황별 서울시 대중교통 이용 변화를 살펴보고, 가장 영향이 큰 폭설 상황을 기준으로 대중교통 이용패턴을 지역별로 분석하였다. 또한, 의사결정모델(Decision-tree Model)를 활용하여 각 영향 변수들 간의 복잡한 관계를 밝히고자 하였다. 분석결과, 폭설 시, 전체 통행에 대한 잠재수요는 감소하고, 대중교통으로의 수단 전환이 일어나는 것을 확인할 수 있었다. 또한, 강동 및 송파 지역과 강서, 구로, 양천, 영등포 지역은 대중교통 이용이 증가하였으며, 관악, 금천, 동작 지역은 상대적으로 큰 변화가 없는 것을 확인할 수 있었다. 마지막으로, 폭설 시 대중교통 출발량의 변화는 도보접근통행시간, 정류장 근처 주차 가용성 등이 중요한 역할을 하며, 도착량의 변화는 해당 도착지의 종사자 및 사업체 밀도와 밀접한 연관이 있다는 것을 알 수 있었다.

Keywords

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