Journal of Medicine and Life Science

Institute for Medical Science (제주대학교 의과학연구소)
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Time series analysis for incidence of scarlet fever in children in Jeju Province, Korea, 2002~2016

2002~2016년도 제주도 소아의 성홍열 발생의 시계열분석

  • Shin, In-Hye (Jeju Center for Infectious Diseases Control and Prevention) ;
  • Bae, Jong-Myon (Jeju Center for Infectious Diseases Control and Prevention)
  • 신인혜 (제주도 감염병관리지원단) ;
  • 배종면 (제주도 감염병관리지원단)
  • Received : 2019.07.25
  • Accepted : 2019.09.26
  • Published : 2019.12.31
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Abstract

The Korea Centers for Diseases Control and Prevention interpreted that recent outbreaks of scarlet fever in Korea since 2011 was resulted from the expansion of scarlet fever notification criteria. To suggest a relevant hypothesis regarding this emerging outbreak, a time series analysis(TSA) of scarlet fever incidence between 2002 and 2016 was conducted. The raw data was the nationwide insurance claims database administered by the Korean National Health Insurance Service. The inclusion criteria were children aged ≤14 years residing in Jeju Province, Korea who received any form of healthcare for scarlet fever from 2002 to 2016. The season was defined as winter (December, January, February; Q1), spring (March, April, May; Q2), summer (June, July, August; Q3), and autumn (September, October, November; Q4). There were seasonal variations with showing peak season on Q1 and Q3. And three phases as 2002 Q2~2005 Q2, 2005 Q2~2009 Q4, and 2010 Q1~2016 Q4 were found between 2002 and 2016. The results from TSA suggested that the recent outbreak of scarlet fever among children in Jeju Province might be a phenomenon from 'unknown birth-related environmental factors' changed after 2010.

Keywords

References

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