Journal of Environmental Health Sciences (한국환경보건학회지)

Korean Society of Environmental Health (한국환경보건학회)
권호 표지
DOI QR코드

DOI QR Code

Uncertainty and Sensitivity Analyses of Human Aggregate Risk Assessment of Benzene using the CalTOX Model

CalTOX 모델을 이용한 벤젠 종합위해성평가의 불확실성 분석과 민감도 분석

  • Kim, Ok (Department of Environmental Education, Kongju National University) ;
  • Lee, Minwoo (Department of Environmental Education, Kongju National University) ;
  • Song, Youngho (Environmental Safety & Management Division Chungcheongnam-do, Provincial Government) ;
  • Choi, Jinha (Chungcheongnam-do Health & Environment Research inst.) ;
  • Park, Sanghyun (Chungnam Institute) ;
  • Park, Changyoung (Department of Environmental Education, Kongju National University) ;
  • Lee, Jinheon (Department of Environmental Education, Kongju National University)
  • 김옥 (공주대학교 환경교육과) ;
  • 이민우 (공주대학교 환경교육과) ;
  • 송영호 (충청남도 환경안전관리과) ;
  • 최진하 (충남보건환경연구원) ;
  • 박상현 (충남연구원) ;
  • 박창용 (공주대학교 환경교육과) ;
  • 이진헌 (공주대학교 환경교육과)
  • Received : 2020.01.20
  • Accepted : 2020.02.20
  • Published : 2020.04.30
Download PDF
⟨ Previous Next ⟩

Abstract

Objectives: The purpose of this study was to perform an aggregate human risk assessment for benzene in an industrial complex using the CalTOX model and to improve the reliability and predictability of the model by analyzing the uncertainty and sensitivity of the predicted assessment results. Methods: The CalTOXTM 4.0 beta model was used to evaluate a selected region, and @Risk 7.6 software was used to analyze uncertainty and sensitivity. Results: As a result of performing the aggregate risk assessment on the assumption that 6.45E+04 g/d of benzene would be emitted into the atmosphere over two decades, 3% of the daily source term to air remained in the selected region, and 97% (6.26E+04 g/d) moved out of the region. As for exposure by breathing, the predicted LADDinhalation was 2.14E-04 mg/kg-d, and that was assessed as making a 99.99% contribution to the LADDtotal. Regarding human Riskcancer assessment, the predicted human cancer risk was 5.19E-06 (95% CI; 4.07E-06-6.81E-06) (in the 95th percentile corresponding to the highest exposure level, a confidence interval of 90%). As a result of analyzing sensitivity, 'source term to air' was identified as the most influential variable, followed by 'exposure time, active indoors (h/day)', and 'exposure duration (years)'. Conclusions: As for the results of the human cancer risk assessment for the selected region, the predicted human cancer risk was 5.19E-06 (95% CI; 4.07E-06-6.81E-06) (in the 95th percentile, corresponding to the highest exposure level, a confidence interval of 90%). As a result of analyzing sensitivity, 'source term to air' was found to be most influential.

Keywords

References

  1. Myung HN, Oh HJ. A study on the construction and spplication of Chungnam Type DB considering environment and health. Chung Nam Institute; 2015.
  2. US Environmental Protection Agency. Risk Assessment Guidance for Superfund Volume I-Human Health Evaluation Manual (Part A); 1989.
  3. Kim JH, Kwak BK, Shin CB, Jeon WJ, Yi JH, Prediction of exposure and risks of environmental pollutants via emission assessment and multimedia transport modeling. Korean Chemical Engineering Research. 2009; 47(6): 248-257.
  4. Jang YC, Lee SW, Shin YS, Kim HK, Lee JH. Human health risk assessment of benzene from industrial complexes of Chungcheong and Jeonla province. Journal of Environmental Impact Assessment. 2011; 20(4): 457-507.
  5. Moon JY, Yang JY, LimYW, Park SE. Estimating human exposure to benzo(a)pyrene through multimedia/multiroute exposure scenario. J. Environ. Toxicol. 2003; 18(4): 255-269.
  6. US Environmental Protection Agency. Human Health Risk Assessment. Available: https://www.epa.gov/risk/human-health-risk-assessment [accessed 10 December 2019].
  7. Yang JY. Estimation of human exposure to dioxins in Korean urban residents by mulitimedia/multiroute model. [Seoul]: Yonsei University; 2001.
  8. Kim O. A multimedia & multiple pathway estimating human exposure of benzo(a)pyrene by using CalTOX model, focused on the fuel combustion in seosan area. [Gongju]: Kongju National University; 2017.
  9. International Risk Information System. IARC Monographs Volume 120: Benzene. World Health Organization; 2018. p.43.
  10. International Risk Information System. IRIS Assessment_Benzene. Available: http://www.epa.gov/iris/subst/index.html [accessed 15 December 2019].
  11. International Agency for Research on Cancer. IARCA Monographson the Identification of Carcingenic Hazads to Human Available: http://monographs.iarc.fr/list-of-classifications [accessed 12 January 2020].
  12. Agency for Toxic Substance ane Disease Registry. Toxicological Profile for Benzene. Department of Health and Human Services Public Health Service; 2007.
  13. National Institute of Environmental Research. National Air Pollutant Emission Calculation Method Manual (III). 2013.
  14. Pollutant Release and Transfer Registers. Search by Business. Available: https://icis.me.go.kr/prtr/main.do [accessed 1 April. 2019].
  15. California Environmental Protection Agency DTSC. CalTOX, A Multimedia Total Exposure Model for Hazardous Waste SitesPart III: The Multiple Pathway Exposure Model. 1993.
  16. Korea Meteorological Administration. ASOS. Available: https://data.kma.go.kr/cmmn/main.do [accessed 1 April 2019].
  17. Korea Stastistical Information Service. Available: http://kosis.kr/index/index.do [accessed 1 April 2019].
  18. Kim JW, Kim HS, Lee DJ, Kim GH. Analysis of water use characteristics by household demand monitoring. Journal of Korean Society of Environmental Engineers. 2007; 29(8): 864-869.
  19. Park JH, Ryu HS, Heo J, Cho MS, Yang WH. Estimation of ventilation rates in Korean homes using time-activity patterns and carbon dioxide ($CO_2$) concentration. J Environ Health Sci. 2019; 45(1): 1-8.
  20. National Institute of Environmental Research. Korean Exposure Factors Handbook. 2019.
  21. Jo AR, Kim TS, Seo JK, Yoon HJ, Kim PJ, Choi KH. Uncertainty analysis and application to risk assessment. J Environ Health Sci. 2015; 41(6): 425-437.
  22. Kim O, Song YH, Choi JH, Park SH, Park CY, Lee MW, Lee JH. Human exposure to BTEX and its risk assessment using CalTOX model according to the probability density function in meteorological input data. J Environ Health Sci. 2019; 45(5): 1-14.
  23. Park JH, Ryu HS, Yang SY, Park YK, Heo J, Kim EC, et al. Exposure and risk assessment of nitrogen dioxide and ozone for sub-population groups using Monte-Carlo simulations. J Environ Health Sci. 2019; 45(2): 113-125.
  24. Min JH. Monte Carlo Simulation, Eretec; 2018.
  25. Hattemer-Frey HA, Travis CC, Land ML. Benzene: Environmental partitioning and human exposure. Environ Res. 1990; 53: 221-232. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0013-9351(05)80120-3
  26. MacLeod M, Mackay D. An assessment of the environmental fate and exposure of benzene and the chlorobenzenes in Canada. Chemosphere. 1999;38(8): 1777-1796. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0045-6535(98)00394-4
  27. National Institute of Environmental Research. A Study on Preparation of National Priority Material Management Plan (I); 2011.
  28. WHO. Evoluation of WHO Air quality guidelines: Past, Present and Future. Available: http://www.euro.who.int/_data/assets/pdf_file/0019/331660/Evolutionair-quality.pdf?ua=1 [accessed 15 January 2020].
  29. Park JH, Yang SY, Park YK, Ryu HS, Kim EC, Choe YT, et al. Exposure and risk assessment of benzene and $PM_{10}$ for sub-populations using Monte-Carlo simulations. J Environ Health Sci. 2019; 45(3): 247-257.
  30. Ministry of Environment. 'Watersworks statics' Statistical Information Report; 2017.
  31. National Institute of Environmental Research. Study on the Behavior of Endocrine Obstacles in the Environment (II); 2003.
  32. Ministry of Environment. Risk Assessment and Management Technology; 2004.
  33. National Institute of Environmental Research. A Study Diagnostic Method of Multi-Media Fate of Pollutants (IV); 2010.
  34. Intergovermental Panel Climate Change. Good Practice Gudidance and Uncertainty Management in National Greenhouse Gas Inventories. Available: http://www.ipcc-nggip.iges.or.jp/public/gp/english/ [accessed 8 February 2020].
  35. Cullen AC, Frey HC. Probabilistic Techniques in Exposure and Risk Assessment: A Handbook for Dealing with Variability and Uncertainty in Models and Inputs. New York: Plenum Press; 1999.
  36. California Environmental Protection Agency (Cal/EPA). California Cancer Potency Factors; 1992.
  37. Integrated Risk Information System. An Electronic Data Base Containing Health Risk and U.S. EPA Regulatory Information on Specific Chemicals; 1992.
  38. US Environmental Protection Agency. Health Effects Assessment Summary Tables; 1992
  39. National Institute of Environmental Research. Korean Exposure Factors Handbook; 2007.
  40. US Environmental Protection Agency. Human health evaluation manual, supplemental guidance: Standard default exposure factors. Washington, DC: Press; 1991.
  41. US Environmental Protection Agency. Risk assessment guidance for superfund volume I Human Health Evaluation Mannual (Part A). Chapter 6: Exposure Assessment. Washington, DC: Press; 1989. p.2-40.
  42. California Environmental Protection Agency (Cal/EPA). $CalTOX^{TM}$, A Multimedia Total Exposure Model For Hazardous-Waste Sites; 1994.