Journal of Digital Convergence (디지털융복합연구)

The Society of Digital Policy and Management (한국디지털정책학회)
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The Effect of Workforce Aging on Human Capital Job and Regional Economic Performance in Korea: focusing on Metro Cities and Provinces

노동력 고령화가 인적자본 취업비중과 1인당 지역총생산에 미치는 효과: 우리나라 광역시와 도를 중심으로

  • Lee, Seong-Hoon (Department of Economics and Statistics, Korea University) ;
  • Lee, Hyangsoo (College of Humanities and Social Sciences, Konkuk University) ;
  • Jung, Yonghun (Department of Economics and Statistics, Korea University)
  • 이성훈 (고려대학교 경제통계학부) ;
  • 이향수 (건국대학교 인문사회융합대학) ;
  • 정용훈 (고려대학교 경제통계학부)
  • Received : 2020.02.12
  • Accepted : 2020.05.20
  • Published : 2020.05.28
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Abstract

This study analyzes the effects of aging workforce on human capital and the per capita gross regional domestic product, using regional panel statistics from 1995 to 2017. According to the results of the two-stage least-squares panel regression analysis reflecting the fixed effects by region, the aging of the labor force had no effect on the human capital employment ratio and per capita gross domestic product in the metropolitan cities, but reduced human capital and per capita gross domestic product in the provinces. The share of service businesses had a positive effect on human capital in metropolitan cities, but the effect was not significant in the provinces. Human capital significantly contributed to the increase in per capita gross regional domestic product in the metropolitan cities, but the physical capital stock significantly contributed to the increase in per capita gross regional domestic product in the provinces. The results of this study suggest that the human capital job policy and the per capita regional GDP growth policy due to the aging workforce may be different between metropolitan cities and provinces.

본 연구는 우리나라 광역시와 도를 중심으로 1995-2017년의 지역별 패널통계를 활용하여 노동력 고령화가 인적자본 취업비중과 1인당 지역총생산에 미치는 영향을 분석하였다. 지역별 고정효과를 반영한 2단계 최소자승 패널 회귀 분석 결과에서 노동력 고령화는 광역시의 인적자본 취업비중과 1인당 지역총생산에는 영향이 없는 반면, 도의 인적자본 취업비중과 1인당 지역총생산은 유의한 수준에서 감소시키는 것으로 나타났다. 또한 서비스 사업체 비중은 광역시의 인적자본 취업비중에 긍정적 영향을 미치지만 도에서는 그 효과가 유의하지 않게 나타났으며, 광역시에서는 인적자본 취업비중이 1인당 지역총생산 증가에 유의하게 기여하고 있지만 도의 경우는 물리적 자본이 1인당 지역총생산 증가에 유의하게 기여하고 있는 것으로 나타났다. 이와 같은 광역시와 도에 따른 다른 분석결과는 노동력 고령화에 대응하는 인적자본과 1인당 지역총생산 증가를 위한 광역시와 도의 최적화된 정책은 지역에 따라 차별화시켜야 함을 시사한다.

Keywords

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