Abstract
Currently, subway crowding is estimated by observing a specific point at specific hours once or twice every 1 or 2 years. Given the extensive subway network in Seoul Metropolitan Area covering 588 stations, 11 lines and 80 transfer stations as of 2017, implementing crowding mitigation policy may have its limitations due to data uncertainty. A proposal has recently been made to effectively use smart card data, which generates big data on the overall subway traffic related to an estimated 8 million passengers per day. To mitigate subway crowding, this study proposes two viable options based on data related to smart card used in Seoul Metropolitan Area. One is to create a subway passenger pattern model to accurately estimate subway crowding, while the other is to prove effectiveness of early bird policy to distribute subway demand that is concentrated at certain stations and certain time. A subway passenger pattern model was created to estimate the passenger routes based on subway terminal ID at the entrance and exit and data by hours. To that end, we propose assigning passengers at the routes similar to the shortest routes based on an assumption that passengers choose the fastest routes. In the model, passenger flow is simulated every minute, and subway crowding level by station and line at every hour is analyzed while station usage pattern is identified by depending on passenger paths. For early bird policy, highly crowded stations will be categorized based on congestion level extracted from subway passenger pattern model and viability of a policy which transfers certain traveling demands to early commuting hours in those stations will be reviewed. In particular, review will be conducted on the impact of policy implemented at certain stations on other stations and lines from subway network as a whole. Lastly, we proposed that smart card based subway passenger pattern model established through this study used in decision making process to ensure effective implementation of public transport policy.