Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society (한국산학기술학회논문지)

The Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society (한국산학기술학회)
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Development of Prediction Model to Improve Dropout of Cyber University

사이버대학 중도탈락 개선을 위한 예측모형 개발

  • Park, Chul (Division of Management Information, Kwangwoon University)
  • 박철 (광운대학교 경영정보학과)
  • Received : 2020.04.07
  • Accepted : 2020.07.03
  • Published : 2020.07.31
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Abstract

Cyber-university has a higher rate of dropout freshmen due to various educational factors, such as social background, economic factors, IT knowledge, and IT utilization ability than students in twenty offline-based university. These students require a different dropout prevention method and improvement method than offline-based universities. This study examined the main factors affecting dropout during the first semester of 2017 and 2018 A Cyber University. This included management and counseling factors by the 'Decision Tree Analysis Model'. The Management and counseling factors were presented as a decision-making method and weekly methods. As a result, a 'Dropout Improvement Model' was implemented and applied to cyber-university freshmen in the first semester of 2019. The dropout-rate in freshmen applying the 'Dropout Improvement Model' decreased by 4.2%, and the learning-persistence rate increased by 11.4%. This study applied a questionnaire survey, and the cyber-university students LMS (Learning Management System) learning results were analyzed objectively. On the other hand, the students' learning results were analyzed quantitatively, but qualitative analysis was not reflected. Nevertheless, further study is necessary. The 'Dropout Improvement Model' of this study will be applied to help improve the dropout rate and learning persistence rate of cyber-university.

사이버대학교는 20대 중심의 일반대학교 학생보다 사회적 배경, 경제적 요인, IT 지식 및 활용능력 등. 복잡한 교육환경의 변화 요인으로 신입생들의 중도탈락이 높은 실정이다. 따라서 사이버대학교 학생은 일반대학교와 다른 중도탈락 방지 대책과 개선 방법이 필요하다. 본 연구에서는 A 사이버대학의 2017년 및 2018년 1학기 중도탈락에 영향을 미치는 요인을 추출하고 '의사결정트리모델'을 통하여 중점관리 및 상담기준을 분류하여 주요 요인을 도출하였다. 각 주요 요인에 대하여 의사결정 적용기준과 주차별 추진방법을 제시하여 '중도탈락개선모형'으로 구현하였다. 그리고 2019년 1학기 신입생을 대상으로 실제로 운영되고 있는 사이버대학 강의운영에 적용하였다. 그 결과 '중도탈락개선모형'을 적용한 신입생의 중도탈락률은 4.2% 감소하였고 학업지속비율은 11.4% 증가하였다. 본 연구의 주요한 의미는 설문지 조사와 사이버대학 LMS(Learning Management System) 학습활동 결과를 동시에 적용하여 객관적인 분석을 하였다는 것이다. 그러나 학생 자료에 대한 정량적인 요인분석은 되었지만, 정성적인 요인분석이 반영되지 못하였고 연구의 구조적인 한계점이 있어 후속연구가 필요하다. 본 연구에서 구현된 개선모형은 사이버대학의 중도탈락률 및 학업지속비율 개선에 유효하게 적용될 것으로 기대한다.

Keywords

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