Journal of the Architectural Institute of Korea (대한건축학회논문집)

Architectural Institute of Korea (대한건축학회)
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Uncertainty in Sensitivity Analysis of Architectural Design Variables for Heating and Cooling Loads Depending on Usage Scenarios

건물 사용 시나리오에 따른 냉난방 부하 민감도 분석의 불확실성

  • Yoo, Young-Seo ;
  • Yi, Dong-Hyuk ;
  • Park, Cheol-Soo (Department of Architecture and Architectural Engineering.Institute of Engineering Research, Institute of Construction and Environmental Engineering, Seoul National University)
  • 유영서 (서울대 대학원) ;
  • 이동혁 (서울대 공학연구원) ;
  • 박철수 (서울대 건축학과.건설환경종합연구소)
  • Received : 2021.08.27
  • Accepted : 2021.11.01
  • Published : 2021.11.30
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Abstract

It has been widely acknowledged that rational decision making at architectural design stage is important for energy efficient building design. In other words, the relationship between building energy use and design variables must be carefully analyzed. For this purpose, the global sensitivity analysis (GSA) can be a useful tool because GSA quantifies the unit change of a model's output against the unit change of the individual model input for the entire input space. With the use of GSA, the influence of each design variable can be quantified in terms of sensitivity index. However, such sensitivity index can be dependent on crude assumptions for building usage scenarios, e.g. occupant density, equipment density, infiltration rate, etc. In general, these parameters are set as deterministic values based on simulationist's subjective judgment, and it can be inferred that this subjective assmptions could cause uncertainty in sensitivity analysis. With this in mind, the authors propose a sensitivity analysis process for building energy design variables considering the uncertainty of building use scenarios. For this purpose, Sobol sensitivity analysis was performed on five design variables (wall U-value, fenestration SHGC, lighting power density, window U-value, window-wall ratio) according to assumptions of five building usage scenarios (occupant density, equipment density, infiltration rate, cooling and heating set-point temperatures). As a result, it is found that uncertainty in the sensitivity of design variables is significant and the sensitivity ranking of the design variables can vary. This indicates that in order to reach rational decision making, careful attention must be paid to selection of uncertain building usage scenarios, and stochastic sensitivity analysis must be employed.

Keywords

Acknowledgement

본 연구는 산업통상자원부(MOTIE)와 한국에너지기술평가원(KETEP)의 지원을 받아 수행한 연구 과제입니다. (No. 20192010107290)

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