International Journal of Naval Architecture and Ocean Engineering

The Society of Naval Architects of Korea (대한조선학회)
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Application of Monte Carlo simulations to uncertainty assessment of ship powering prediction by the 1978 ITTC method

  • Seo, Jeonghwa (Department of Naval Architecture and Ocean Engineering, Chungnam National University) ;
  • Park, Jongyeol (Department of Naval Architecture and Ocean Engineering, Seoul National University) ;
  • Go, Seok Cheon (Hyundai Maritime Research Institute, Hyundai Heavy Industries Co., Ltd.) ;
  • Rhee, Shin Hyung (Department of Naval Architecture and Ocean Engineering, Seoul National University) ;
  • Yoo, Jaehoon (Department of Naval Architecture and Ocean Engineering, Mokpo National University)
  • Received : 2020.06.20
  • Accepted : 2021.03.31
  • Published : 2021.11.30
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Abstract

The present study concerns uncertainty assessment of powering prediction from towing tank model tests, suggested by the International Towing Tank Conference (ITTC). The systematic uncertainty of towing tank tests was estimated by allowance of test setup and measurement accuracy of ITTC. The random uncertainty was varied from 0 to 8% of the measurement. Randomly generated inputs of test conditions and measurement data sets under systematic and random uncertainty are used to statistically analyze resistance and propulsive performance parameters at the full scale. The error propagation through an extrapolation procedure is investigated in terms of the sensitivity and coefficient of determination. By the uncertainty assessment, it is found that the uncertainty of resultant powering prediction was smaller than the test uncertainty.

Keywords

Acknowledgement

This research was supported by the research fund of Chungnam National University.

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