Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society (한국산학기술학회논문지)

The Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society (한국산학기술학회)
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Leverage and Corporate Failure: Analysis of Leverage Impact according to Company Size through Survival Analysis

레버리지와 기업실패: 생존분석을 응용한 기업규모에 따른 레버리지 영향분석

  • Kim, Bong-Min (Department of Business Administration, Changwon National University) ;
  • Kim, Byoung-Gon (Department of Business Administration, Changwon National University) ;
  • Kim, Dong-Wook (Busan Economic Promotion Agency)
  • Received : 2020.08.13
  • Accepted : 2021.01.08
  • Published : 2021.01.31
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Abstract

Survival analysis was used to analyze whether there is a difference in the effect of leverage on corporate failure according to the firm size. A total of 25,250 (year-company) companies listed on the Korea Stock Exchange and KOSDAQ market from 1999 to 2019 were analyzed. First, the increase in leverage generally acts as a factor that increases the possibility of corporate failure. On the other hand, the increase in the trade payable ratio lowered the possibility of failure of the company. The increase in corporate trade payable was perceived as a factor in reducing the possibility of corporate failure because it was considered the active development of business activities or active use of interest-free debt rather than leading to an increase in corporate risk. Second, a higher leverage ratio and trade payable ratio in large firms lowered the possibility of corporate failure. In the SMEs, all types of leverage increases are a factor that increases corporate failure. Overall, the effect of leverage on corporate failure differs according to the size of the company.

본 연구에서는 기업규모에 따라 레버리지가 기업실패에 미치는 영향에 차이가 있는가를 생존분석을 이용하여 분석하였다. 이를 위해 1999년부터 2019년까지 한국거래소 유가증권시장과 코스닥시장에 상장된 총 25,250개(연도-기업) 기업을 분석하였다. 레버리지의 대용변수로는 총부채지표인 레버리지비율과 단기부채지표인 매입채무와 유동부채비율, 장기부채지표인 비유동부채비율을 사용하였다. 실증분석결과 첫째, 대체로 레버리지의 증가는 기업실패 가능성을 높이는 요인으로 작용한다는 것을 확인하였다. 다만 매입채무비율의 증가는 기업의 실패 가능성을 낮춘다는 것을 확인하였다. 기업의 매입채무 증가가 기업리스크의 확대로 연결되기 보다는 활발한 영업활동의 전개나 무이자부채의 적극적인 활용으로 인식되어 기업실패 가능성을 감소시키는 요인으로 작용하는 것으로 이해되었다. 둘째, 대기업과 중소기업으로 나누어 분석한 결과, 대기업에서는 레버리지비율과 매입채무비율이 높아지면 기업실패 가능성이 낮아진다는 것을 확인하였다. 중소기업의 경우에는 모든 유형의 레버리지 증가는 기업실패 가능성을 높이는 요인이 된다는 것을 확인하였다. 중소기업에서 레버리지의 증가는 기업위험의 증가로 연결되어 기업실패 가능성을 높이는 것으로 이해할 수 있었다. 그러나 대기업의 경우는 레버리지의 증가가 기업위험으로 연결되기 보다는 레버리지효과나 활발한 사업 활동의 전개로 연결되어 기업실패 가능성을 낮추는 작용을 하는 것으로 이해할 수 있었다. 이러한 분석결과에서 레버리지가 기업실패에 미치는 영향은 기업규모에 따라 차이가 있다는 것을 확인할 수 있었다.

Keywords

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