한국습지학회지 (Journal of Wetlands Research)

  • 제23권1호
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  • Pages.14-26
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  • 2021
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  • 1229-6031(pISSN)
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  • 2384-0056(eISSN)
한국습지학회 (Korean Wetlands Society)
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기후변화 시나리오에 따른 용수구역 기반 소구역의 가뭄전망 및 갈수빈도해석 : 김천시 지역을 중심으로

Low-Flow Frequency Analysis and Drought Outlook in Water Districts Under Climate Change Scenarios : A Case Study of Gimcheon-si, Korea

  • 김지은 (한양대학교 대학원 건설환경시스템공학과) ;
  • 이배성 ((주)삼안 수자원부) ;
  • 유지영 (한양대학교(ERICA) 공학기술연구소) ;
  • 권현한 (세종대학교 건설환경공학과) ;
  • 김태웅 (한양대학교 대학원 건설환경시스템공학과)
  • Kim, Jieun (Department of Civil and Environmental System Engineering, Hanyang University) ;
  • Lee, Baesung (Water Resources Development Department, Saman Corporation) ;
  • Yoo, Jiyoung (Research Institute of Engineering and Technology, Hanyang University(ERICA)) ;
  • Kwon, Hyun-Han (Department of Civil Engineering, Sejong University) ;
  • Kim, Tae-Woong (Department of Civil and Environmental System Engineering, Hanyang University)
  • 투고 : 2020.10.20
  • 심사 : 2021.01.23
  • 발행 : 2021.02.28
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초록

최근 기후변화에 기인한 기상변동성 증가에 따라 지역에 적합한 가뭄 감시 및 전망에 대한 필요성이 높아지고 있다. 특히, 경상북도 김천시의 경우 기후변화로 인해 가뭄 발생빈도 및 심도가 증가하고 있어 상습적인 가뭄피해를 겪고 있다. 이러한 이유로 용수구역 기반의 소구역에 대해 가뭄 특성을 분석하고 기후변화를 고려한 기준갈수량 산정이 필요하다. 본 연구에서는 김천시의 급수체계 및 지역 특성이 반영된 8개 지구에 대해 다양한 기후변화 시나리오에 따른 기상학적 가뭄 및 수문학적 가뭄 전망을 수행하였다. 또한, 유출량 및 갈수량을 활용하여 가까운 미래에 대한 갈수빈도해석을 수행하였다. 그 결과, 기상학적 가뭄은 S0(1974~2019) 기간에서 가뭄발생빈도, 지속기간 및 심도가 크게 나타났으며, 수문학적 가뭄은 RCP 4.5의 경우 대부분 S2(2041~2070) 기간에서, RCP 8.5의 경우 S3(2071~2099) 기간에서 위험한 것으로 나타났다. 또한 갈수빈도해석을 통해 미래 유출량은 증가하지만 가뭄의 강도 및 빈도가 더욱 증가한다는 것을 확인하였다. 본 연구방법 및 결과는 지방자치단체 가뭄 대책 및 수자원 시설물에 관한 기준 등에 활용될 수 있다.

Increase of climate variability due to climate change has paved the way for regional drought monitoring and outlook. In particular, Gimcheon-si, Gyeongsangbuk-do, is suffering from frequent and periodic drought damage as the frequency and magnitude of drought are increasing due to climate change. For this reason, it is necessary to analyze drought characteristics for sub-districts based on water district and calculate the basic low-flow considering climate change. In this study, meteorological and hydrological drought outlook were carried out for 8 sub-districts considering the water supply system and regional characteristics of Gimcheon-si according to various climate change scenarios. In addition, the low-flow frequency analysis for the near future was also performed using the total amount of runoff and the low-flow. The overall results indicated that, meteorological droughts were found to be dangerous in the S0(1974~2019) period and hydrological droughts would be dangerous in the S2(2041~2070) period for RCP 4.5 and in S3(2071~2099) period for RCP 8.5. The results of low-flow frequency analysis indicated that future runoff would increase but drought magnitude and frequency would increase further. The results and methodology may be useful for preparing local governments' drought measures and design standards for local water resources facilities.

키워드

참고문헌

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