Journal of Wetlands Research (한국습지학회지)

Korean Wetlands Society (한국습지학회)
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A Study on the 3-month Prior Prediction of Chl-a Concentraion in the Daechong Lake using Hydrometeorological Forecasting Data

수문기상예측자료를 활용한 대청호 Chl-a 3개월 선행예측연구

  • Kwak, Jaewon (Han River Flood Control Office, Ministry of Environment)
  • 곽재원 (환경부 한강홍수통제소)
  • Received : 2021.04.01
  • Accepted : 2021.04.21
  • Published : 2021.05.31
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Abstract

In recently, the green algae bloom is one of the most severe challenges. The seven days prior prediction is in operation to issues the water quality warning, but it also needs a longer time of prediction to take preemptive measures. The objective of the study is to establish a method to conduct a 3-month prior prediction of Chl-a concentration in the Daechong Lake and tested its applicability as a supplementary of current water quality warning. The historical record of water quality in the Daechong Lake and seasonal forecasting of ECMWF were obtained, and its time-series characteristics were analyzed. The Chl-a forecasting model was established using a correlation between Chl-a concentration and meteorological factor and NARX model, and its efficiency was compared.

최근 반복되고 있는 녹조는 수질관리에 가장 큰 과제로서 대두되고 있다. 현재 환경부에서는 7일 단위의 선행수질예측을 통한 수질예보를 수행하고 있으나, 선제적인 조치를 위해서 좀 더 장기간의 수질예측이 필요한 시점이다. 이에 본 연구에서는 수질예보의 보완자료로서 대청호의 Chl-a 농도를 3개월 선행예측하기 위한 방법론을 제안하고 그 적용성을 검토하고자 한다. 이를 위하여 대청호의 수질자동측정망 자료와 ECMWF의 수문기상예측자료를 수집하였으며 각 시계열 자료의 특성을 분석하였다. 대청호의 Chl-a 농도와의 상관 및 웨이블릿 분석을 바탕으로 수문기상입력인자를 결정하고 지연시간을 가지는 NARX모형을 이용하여 대청호의 Chl-a에 대한 3개월 선행예측 모형을 구축하였으며, 결과에 대한 비교분석을 통하여 모형의 적용성을 제시하였다.

Keywords

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